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GSR 2015 - Wind Power

70 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS New technologies continued to emerge in 2014, including Chinese solar water heating systems with forced circulation, driven by provincial and municipal obligations for building- integrated technologies.131 Other advancements include membrane liners and insulated floating covers for seasonal storage with solar district heat systems, and large solar fields with storage for district heat are becoming a proven technology with minimal risk.132 A new generation of system controllers in Europe is enabling solar thermal systems to be better integrated into home automation systems.133 Photovoltaic/solar thermal hybrid (PVT) systems, which convert sunlight to electricity and absorb heat from the solar PV panel and use it to heat water, also advanced in 2014.134 The air collector industry has faced significant challenges, with companies moving in to test the market and withdrawing when earnings targets are not met.135 Several companies left the industry in 2013–2014, while others entered, including Brassolar (Brazil), Elsol (Serbia), and Sammler (Greece) in 2014.136 Thecostofsolarcoolingkitscontinuestofall,decliningby45–55% (depending on system size) over the period 2007–2012.137 The variety of thermal chillers continued to increase in 2014, as did their standardisation.138 Several European companies released new chillers for small systems down to 5 kW.126 Alternative heat rejection systems (which remove waste heat generated by the system) are under development to reduce costs and planning time.127 In addition to new chillers, innovative technologies continue to emerge,particularlyforlarge-scaleandindustrialsystems.128 Due to improved efficiencies of chillers and increasing temperature range for solar thermal technologies, flat plate and evacuated tube collectors can drive air-conditioning and slab cooling systems in the 10 to -20 °C range, and solar concentrators such as parabolic trough and Fresnel collectors can drive refrigeration up to -20° C.129 As systems become larger, solar thermal ESCOs offer a promising business model for overcoming financial and other long-term risks.130 A growing number of manufacturers around the world specialises in concentrating collectors for industrial applications.131 Indian manufacturing companies dominate the area of solar parabolic dishes, while leaders for parabolic trough and linear Fresnel concentrators are in Europe and the United States.132 Solar process heat is competitive in niche markets today, and economics are improving as these technologies provide increasing temperature ranges and as costs associated with fossil fuels and their price volatility rise.133 The technologies offer significant potential for applications from low temperature (<100 °C) to high (up to 400 °C), but they are not widely known.134 Attention to quality standards and certification continued in 2014 withfurtherdevelopmentofaglobalcertificationnetworkforsolar heating, to increase production quality while reducing testing and certification costs.135 Latin America and the MENA region continued to develop regional standards for solar thermal heat systems, while Brazil postponed mandatory quality assurance labelling for solar heaters to late 2015, and India opened two test centres for solar thermal technologies.136 The trend is towards adapting existing standards (as in Europe, for example) to other countries or regions, and it is driven in part by the use of solar thermal systems in public housing (e.g., in Brazil, Jordan, and Turkey) and to support international trade.137 Industry standards for solar cooling also advanced in 2014.138 WIND POWER ■■ WIND POWER MARKETS Following a slowdown in 2013, the wind power market resumed its advance with another record year. Over 51 GW was added in 2014, representing a 44% increase over the 2013 market and bringing the global total to around 370 GW.1 (R See Figure 22 and Reference Table R10.) The top 10 countries accounted for 84% of year-end global capacity, but there are dynamic and emerging markets in most regions.2 By the end of 2014, at least 85 countries had seen commercial wind activity, while at least 74 had more than 10 MW of capacity in operation, and 24 had more than 1 GW.3 This compares with 2005, when the global market was 11.5 GW and 11 countries had cumulative capacity exceeding 1 GW.4 Asia remained the largest market for the seventh consecutive year, accounting for half of added capacity, followed by the European Union (23% in 2014, compared with about 32% in 2013) and North America (13% in 2014, compared with less than 8% in 2013).5 Non-OECD countries were responsible for the majority of installations, as has been the case since 2010 (except for 2012).6 China alone accounted for about 45% of global additions, followed distantly by Germany, the United States, Brazil, and India.7 Others in the top 10 were Canada, the United Kingdom, Sweden, France, and Turkey.8 (p See Figure 23.) Growth in some of the largest markets was driven by uncertainty about future policy changes and on-off policies.9 Wind has become the least-cost option for new power generating capacity in an increasing number of markets, and new markets continued to emerge during 2014 in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.10 Uruguay, for example, added more capacity per capita than any other market.11 The leading countries for total wind power capacity per inhabitant were Denmark, Sweden, Germany (which moved up from sixth), Spain, and Ireland.12 China saw a rush of installations due in part to anticipation of a reduced feed-in tariff for onshore wind power.13 China added an estimated 23.2 GW, more than any country has ever installed in one year, for a total approaching 115 GW.14 About 20.7 GW was integrated into the national grid and started receiving the FIT premium during 2014, with approximately 95.8 GW considered officially grid-connected by year’s end.15 Wind generated 156.3 TWh in 2014, accounting for 2.8% of China’s total generation (up from 2.6% in 2013).16 Inner Mongolia had 21.1% of cumulative capacity at year’s end, followed by Gansu (10.3%), Hebei (9.2%), and Xinjiang (8.1%) provinces, with Gansu and Hebei both benefitting from new transmission lines and improved grid management.17 Difficulties continued in transmitting China’s wind power from turbines to population centres. However, new transmission lines and turbine deployment in areas with better grid access, as well as incentives for wind farm development in less-windy areas nearer to demand centres, are reducing the number of idled turbines.18 As a result, the rate of curtailment dropped four percentage points relative to 2013, to 8% (down from a high of 17% in 2012)—meaning that 14.9 TWh of potential generation was curtailed.19 Trials are under way to feed “surplus” wind- generated electricity into central and district heating systems in the northeast, an additional measure that could help solve the curtailment problem.20

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