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GSR 2015 - Endnotes

ENDNOTES 01 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 178 1 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Short-term Energy Outlook: Global Crude Oil Prices,” 12 May 2015, http:// www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/prices.cfm; Grant Smith and Anthony Dipaola, “Saudis’ Oil Price War Is Paying Off,” Bloomberg, 26 February 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/ news/articles/2015-02-27/saudis-bold-gambit-paying-off-just- three-months-later-energy; Grant Smith, “Oil-Price Rout Seen Deepening by IEA as Pressure on OPEC Mounts,” Bloomberg, 14 November 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/ articles/2014-11-14/oil-price-rout-seen-deepening-by-iea-as- pressure-on-opec-mounts; Ehren Goossens, “Cheap Oil Unlikely to Slow Growth of Renewables, Citigroup Says,” Bloomberg, 30 March 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-30/ cheap-oil-unlikely-to-slow-growth-of-renewables-citigroup- says; Ole Mikelson, “Vestas Wind Chairman Say Low Oil Price Not a Big Problem,” Reuters, 30 March 2015, http://af.reuters. com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL6N0WW3UQ20150330; Tom Randall, “While You Were Getting Worked Up Over Oil Prices, This Just Happened to Solar,” Bloomberg, 29 October 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-29/ while-you-were-getting-worked-up-over-oil-prices-this-just- happened-to-solar; University of Cambridge and PwC, Financing the Future of Energy (Abu Dhabi: March 2015), http://www.pwc. com/m1/en/publications/documents/financing-the-future-of- energy-executive-summary-english.pdf. Decreased oil prices may dampen the markets for renewable energy in transportation and heating and cooling going forward, from Jacob Bunge and Jesse Newman, “Falling Crude Prices Force Ethanol Makers to Take It on the Chin,” Wall Street Journal, 2 January 2015, http://www.wsj. com/articles/falling-crude-prices-force-ethanol-makers-to-take- it-on-the-chin-1420238100. 2 Growth in final energy consumption for years 2007 through 2012, from International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Statistics and Balances, 2014 edition (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2014). 3 Carbon emissions remained stable in 2014 compared to 2013, while the global economy grew by 3%. IEA, “Global Energy-related Emissions of Carbon Dioxide Stalled in 2014,” 13 March 2015, http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/news/2015/march/ global-emissions-of-carbon-dioxide-stalled-in-2014.html. 4 Ibid. 5 Together, China and the United States emitted 40% of global carbon dioxide emissions in 2014, from Leigh Phillips, “How Big a Deal Is the US-China Climate Deal?” Road to Paris, 16 November 2014, http://roadtoparis.info/2014/11/16/big-deal-us-china- climate-deal/; The White House, “U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change,” press release (Washington, DC: 11 November 2014), https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/11/11/ us-china-joint-announcement-climate-change; Alex Nussbaum and Eric Martin, “Mexico Pledges to Cut Emissions 25 Percent in Climate Change Milestone,” Renewable Energy World, 30 March 2014, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/ article/2015/03/mexico-pledges-to-cut-emissions-25-percent-in- climate-change-milestone; Government of the Republic of Mexico, “Mexico’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution,” press release (Mexico City: 27 March 2015); European Commission for Climate Action, “2030 Framework for Climate and Energy Policies,” 26 March 2015, http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/2030/ index_en.htm. 6 See section on Distributed Renewable Energy in Developing Countries and Reference Tables R22–R24. 7 United Nations Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL), “United Nations Decade of Sustainable Energy for All 2014-2024,” http:// www.se4all.org/decade/. 8 SE4ALL, “Tracking Progress,” http://www.se4all.org/tracking- progress/, viewed 10 April 2015. 9 Estimated shares based on the following sources: Total 2013 final energy consumption (estimated at 8,332 Mtoe) is based on 8,170 Mtoe for 2012 from IEA, op. cit. note 2, and escalated by the 1.98% increase in global primary energy demand from 2012 to 2013, derived from BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 (London: 2014). Traditional biomass use in 2013 of 31.5 EJ from IEA, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014 (Paris: OECD/ IEA, 2014), p. 208. Elsewhere, traditional biomass use in 2012 was estimated at 758 Mtoe (31.74 EJ), and expected to decline by 2020, from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2014 (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2014), p. 242. In 2011, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated a higher range for traditional biomass of 37–43 EJ, and a proportionately lower figure for modern biomass use, per IPCC, Special Report on Renewable Energy Resources and Climate Change Mitigation, prepared by Working Group III of the IPCC (Cambridge, UK and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2011), Table 2.1, http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report. Modern bio-heat energy values for 2013 (industrial, residential, and other uses, including heat from heat plants) of 310.5 Mtoe (13 EJ) from IEA, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014, op. cit. this note, p. 212. Bio-power generation of 34 Mtoe (396 TWh), from idem, p. 144. Wind power generation of 54.3 Mtoe (631 TWh) from idem, pp. 159, 164. Solar PV generation of 11.3 Mtoe (131 TWh), from idem, Electronic Databook. Concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) was 0.5 Mtoe (6.3 TWh), from idem. Ocean power was 0.1 Mtoe (1 TWh), from idem. Geothermal electricity generation of 6.3 Mtoe (73 TWh), from idem. Hydropower of 325 Mtoe (3,782 TWh) from BP, op. cit. this note. Solar thermal heating/ cooling estimated at 27 Mtoe (1.13 EJ), from Franz Mauthner, AEE-Institute for Sustainable Technologies (AEE-INTEC), Gleisdorf, Austria, personal communications with REN21, March–May 2015; Franz Mauthner and Werner Weiss, Solar Heat Worldwide: Markets and Contribution to the Energy Supply 2013 (Gleisdorf, Austria: IEA Solar Heating and Cooling Programme (SHC), 2015). Note that the estimate does not consider air collectors. Geothermal heat (excluding heat pumps) was estimated at 6.3 Mtoe (0.26 EJ), based on 2014 value from John W. Lund and Tonya L. Boyd, “Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy: 2015 Worldwide Review,” in Proceedings of the World Geothermal Congress 2015 (Melbourne, Australia: 19–25 April 2015). For liquid biofuels, ethanol use was estimated at 45.4 Mtoe (1.9 EJ) and biodiesel use at 20.4 Mtoe (0.85 EJ), based on 89.6 billion litres and 26.6 billion litres, respectively, from IEA, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014, op. cit. this note, Electronic Databook; and conversion factors from U.S. Department of Energy Alternative Fuels Data Center, http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels. Nuclear power generation was assumed to contribute 214 Mtoe (2,489 TWh) of final energy, from BP, op. cit. this note. Figure 1 based on the sources in this note. 10 Ibid. 11 Figure 2 based on the following: See relevant sections and endnotes for more details regarding 2014 data and sources. Geothermal based on 10.7 GW in operation at the end of 2009, about 12.1 GW at the end of 2013, and nearly 12.8 GW at the end of 2014, from U.S. Geothermal Energy Agency (GEA), unpublished database, provided by Benjamin Matek, GEA, personal communication with REN21, March 2014; and from Ruggero Bertani, “Geothermal Power Generation in the World: 2010-2014 Update Report,” in Proceedings of the World Geothermal Congress 2015 (Melbourne, Australia: 19–25 April 2015). Hydropower based on an estimated 888 GW (not including pumped storage) in operation at the end of 2009 based on data from EIA, “International Energy Statistics,” http://www.eia.gov/countries/ data.cfm, viewed 14 May 2014; 37 GW of new capacity in 2014 and 1,055 GW of total capacity at the end of 2014 from International Hydropower Association (IHA) Hydropower Database, from IHA, personal communication with REN21, May 2015. Additions in 2014 are lower than the IHA value of 39 GW published in May 2015 to reflect lower actual capacity additions in Malaysia of 0.8 GW compared to 3.3 GW, with much of the difference installed in prior years. Solar PV based on 23.2 GW in operation at the end of 2009, and 138 GW at the end of 2013, from Gaëtan Masson, IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA-PVPS) and Becquerel Institute, personal communication with REN21, 7 May 2015, from European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), Market Report 2014 (Brussels: 2014), and from EPIA, Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2015-2019 (Brussels: forthcoming 2015), and on 177 GW at the end of 2014. CSP based on 663 MW in operation at the end of 2009, from Fred Morse, Abengoa Solar, personal communication with REN21, 4 May 2012, and from Red Eléctrica de España (REE), “Potencia Instalada Peninsular (MW),” updated 29 April 2013, http://www.ree.es/es/publicaciones/ indicadores-y-datos-estadisticos/series-estadisticas; on 3,424 MW at the end of 2013, from REN21, Renewables 2014 Global Status Report (Paris: 2014); Elisa Prieto Casaña, Frederick H. Morse, and Francisco Javier Martínez Villar, Abengoa Solar, personal communications with REN21, 28 April 2015; Eduardo Garcia Iglesias, Protermosolar, personal communication with REN21, 29 April 2015; U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), “Concentrating Solar Power Projects,” http://www.nrel. gov/csp/solarpaces/, viewed 24 April 2015; “CSP Today Global Tracker,” CSP Today, http://social.csptoday.com/tracker/projects, viewed 27 April 2014; and on 4,364 MW at the end of 2014. Wind power based on 159.1 GW at the end of 2009 and 318.6 GW at the end of 2013, from Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), Global Wind Report – Annual Market Update 2014 (Brussels: 2015), and BACK

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