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GSR 2015

187 02 RENEWABLES 2015 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS – BIOMASS ENERGY 1 Figure 6 based on Helena Chum et al., “Bioenergy,” in Ottmar Edenhofer et al., eds., IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2011). 2 Sidebar 4 based on the following sources: challenges with biomass data from World Bank and International Energy Agency (IEA), Global Tracking Framework (Washington, DC: 2014), p. 166, http://www.scribd.com/doc/144250731/Global-Tracking- Framework; threshold of 1 MW from IEA, Renewables Information 2014: Documentation for Beyond 2020 Files (Paris: 2014), p. 52, http://wds.iea.org/wds/pdf/Ren_documentation.pdf. Note that some countries exclude systems with capacity below a specific threshold (which can be as high as 1 MW) from official statistics, thereby excluding most small-scale solar PV production and some other distributed renewable energy installations. Figure of 68% based on data in the files of the German Federal Network Agency at http://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/ Downloads/DE/Sachgebiete/Energie/Unternehmen_Institutionen/ ErneuerbareEnergien/Photovoltaik/Datenmeldungen/ Meldungen_2014_01-11.xls?__blob=publicationFile&v=2 and http://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/ DE/Sachgebiete/Energie/Unternehmen_Institutionen/ ErneuerbareEnergien/Photovoltaik/Datenmeldungen/ Meldungen_2014_12.xls?__blob=publicationFile&v=3, both viewed 3 February 2015; IEA, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014 (Paris: 2014), p. 24, http://www. iea.org/bookshop/480-Medium-Term_Renewable_Energy_ Market_Report_2014; International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Statistical Issues: Bioenergy and Distributed Renewable Energy (Abu Dhabi: 2013), http://www.irena.org/menu/index. aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=330; solar PV systems based on C. Werner et al., Global Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic Capacity and Respective International Trade Flows, prepared for the 26th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, Hamburg, Germany, 5–9 September 2011; biofuels based on P. Lamers et al., “Developments in International Liquid Biofuel Trade,” in M. Junginger, C.S. Goh, and A. Faaij, International Bioenergy Trade: History, Status & Outlook on Securing Sustainable Bioenergy Supply, Demand and Markets (Berlin: Springer, 2014), pp. 17–40; trade codes for renewable energy carriers based on Lamers et al., op. cit. this note. Note that terms applied at the six-digit level under the international harmonised standard (HS) may be ambiguous. For example “waste wood,” classified under HS 440130, could entail post- consumer wood products as well as residues from different parts of the timber and wood-processing value chain. As trade flows can be subject to duties/taxes and/or national preference agreements, ambiguous trade classifications as well as triangular shipping routes have been used as circumvention mechanisms, e.g., in the liquid biofuels markets. Up-to-date industry information and trade data (trend) analysis are essential to derive actual annual trade flows. Only a limited number of renewable energy-related products (including hydraulic turbines, wind-powered electricity generation sets) have specific HS-6 categories; even when products are readily identified at the HS-6 level, some products have multiple end uses. See the following sources: José-Antonio Monteiro, World Trade Organization, personal communication with REN21, 26 January 2015, citing Ronald Steenblik, Liberalisation of Trade in Renewable Energy and Associated Technologies: Biodiesel, Solar Thermal and Geothermal Energy (Paris: OECD, 2006), http://www.oecd.org/tad/envtrade/36420527.pdf; Ronald Steenblik, Liberalisation of Trade in Renewable-Energy Products and Associated Goods: Charcoal, Solar Photovoltaic Systems, and Wind Pumps and Turbines (Paris: OECD, 2005), http://www. oecd.org/trade/envtrade/35842415.pdf; and United Nations Environment Programme, South-South Trade in Renewable Energy: a Trade Flow Analysis of Selected Environmental Goods (Geneva: 2014), http://apps.unep.org/publications/index. php?option=com_pub&task=download&file=-South-South%20 trade%20in%20renewable%20energy:%20a%20trade%20 flow%20analysis%20of%20selected%20environmental%20 goods-2014South-SouthTrade.pdf. Additional methodological challenges from Werner et al., op. cit. this note; cookstoves from World Bank and IEA, op. cit. this note; REN21, “Renewables Interactive Map,” http://map.ren21.net/, viewed 3 February 2015; IRENA, “IRENA REsource,” www.irena.org/resource, viewed 3 February 2015; Sustainable Energy for All, www.se4all.org, viewed 3 February 2015. 3 Projections for 2013 and 2014 produced from a linear regression based on data (2008–2012) from IEA, World Energy Outlook (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2014). 4 IEA data projections show traditional biomass shares to be falling, and equivalent to roughly 54% in 2014. However, estimates vary by organisation. Chum et al. (op. cit. note 1) estimate traditional bioenergy shares of 60% that result from biomass not reported in official primary energy databases, such as dung, unaccounted production of charcoal, illegal logging, fuelwood gathering, and agricultural residue use. 5 Julian Mark Allwood et al., “Glossary,” in Ottmar Edenhofer et al., eds., Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2014). 6 World Bioenergy Association, Global Bioenergy Statistics (Stockholm: 2015). 7 Figure 7 based on the following: values for 2014 calculated using a linear regression based on data from IEA, “Statistics: World: Renewables and Waste 2008–2012”, http://www.iea.org/ statistics/statisticssearch/report/?country=WORLD&product= RenewablesandWaste&year=2012. Municipal solid waste (MSW) values were assumed to be only 50% renewable, consistent with IEA assumptions. Industrial waste was excluded from calculations. 8 Hakan Ekstrom, “Wood Pellet Exports from North America Reached a New Record High in the 3Q/14 Thanks to Higher Shipments to Asia,” press release (Seattle, WA: Wood Resources International LLC, 16 February 2015), http://biomassmagazine. com/articles/10311/north-american-wood-pellet-exports-to- europe-double-in-2-years. Figure 8 based on idem. 9 Ric Hoefnagels, Hawkins-Wright, “End-use and Intra- and Extra-EU Trade Scenarios of Biomass,” presentation at IEA Bioenergy Workshop: Biomass Trade and Supply in a Global Bio- Based Economy, Sassari, Italy, 5 May 2015. 10 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), “U.S. Exports of Fuel Ethanol,” http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler. ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M, viewed April 2015. Percent calculation based on a total production of 54.3 billion litres, provided by F.O. Licht/Licht Interactive Data, “Fuel Ethanol: World Production by Country,” 2015, and “Biodiesel: World Production, by Country,” 2015. 11 Holly Jessen, “Regaining Ground,” Ethanol Producer Magazine, February 2015; 260 million litres was exported to the UAE, 117 million litres to South Korea, and 43 million litres to Tunisia. 12 Erin Voegele, “UNICA Reports Final 2014-‘15 Ethanol Data, Initial 2015-‘16 Stats,” Ethanol Producer Magazine, May 2015, http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/12184/ unica-reports-final-2014-15-ethanol-data-initial-2015-16-stats. 13 zMeghan Sapp, PANGEA, personal communication with REN21, 10 March 2015. 14 Eurostat 2015, International Trade Database, http://ec.europa.eu/ eurostat/web/international-trade/data/database, viewed February 2015. 15 Production level increases in the United States and Indonesia suggest that triangular trade or EU imports under a different code may exist, which are not reported under the Eurostat biodiesel import code. 16 Sapp, op. cit. note 14. 17 IEA, op. cit. note 2. These global totals include “the direct use of energy for heat plus the use of commercial heat (heat produced and sold to a third party) … It is the sum of energy for heat in industry, buildings, and other sectors (agriculture, fishing, and non-specified other sectors),“ from idem. 18 Ibid. 19 Ibid. 20 Calculation based on the following: 297 GWth of bioenergy heat plant capacity installed as of 2008, from Chum et al., op. cit. note 1. Projections based on this number have been made for past GSRs. The combination of the Chum et al. data, plus past GSR projections, was used to estimate 2014 values using a linear regression. Note that accurate heat data, including from bioenergy, are very difficult to obtain as most capacity installations and output are not metered. Even if plant capacities are known, there is often no knowledge of whether a 1 MWth plant, for example, is used for 80 hours or 8,000 hours per year. 21 IEA, op. cit. note 2. 22 Range of estimates from Observ’ER, Solid Biomass Barometer, January 2015, http://www.energies- renouvelables.org/observ-er/stat_baro/observ/ BACK

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