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GSR 2015

208 ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS – SOLAR THERMAL HEATING AND COOLING 18 Trend from retail market to commercial from Bärbel Epp, solrico, “Key Aspects of ISOL Navigator,” December 2014, provided in personal communication with REN21, February 2015. Retail business slowdown and causes from Sun’s Vision, cited in Simon Goess, “China: Engineering Segment Drives Solar Thermal Market,” Solar Thermal World, 27 August 2014, http:// solar-thermal-market. Provinces include Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Hebei, and Anhui, from idem. 19 Simon Goess, “China: Engineering Segment Drives Solar Thermal Market,” Solar Thermal World, 27 August 2014, http://www. drives-solar-thermal-market; Owen Shi, Changzhou XNE Group, cited in Bärbel Epp, “Worldwide: Largest Flat Plate Collector Manufacturers in 2013,” Solar Thermal World, 5 November 2014, collector-manufacturers-2013; see also Epp, op. cit. note 16. 20 Goess, op. cit. note 19. 21 Epp, op. cit. note 16. 22 India had a generous capital subsidy of 30% (and 60% in some cases), but business was affected in 2013 by lack of payment from the government; the incentive was removed in August 2014, causing a further decline in the market, but began bouncing back after manufacturers started offering discounts, per Malaviya Solar Energy Consultancy, provided by Mauthner, op. cit. note 1. See also Bärbel Epp, “India: Government Stops Federal Subsidy Scheme,” Solar Thermal World, 25 August 2014, india-government-stops-federal-subsidy-scheme. 23 Figure of 1.13 million m2 added from Jaideep Malaviya, “India: Statistics to Determine Vacuum Tube Market Share,” Solar Thermal World, determine-vacuum-tube-market-share; total year-end capacity of 6.76 million m2 from Jaideep Malaviya, Malaviya Solar Energy Consultancy, provided by Mauthner, op. cit. note 1. Note that MNRE reported year-end 2014 capacity at 8.63 million m2 , from MNRE, “Physical Progress (Achievements), as of 31 December 2014,”, viewed 21 January 2015. However, MNRE generally does not consider systems removed from operations, so 8.63 million m2 is cumulative of all capacity ever installed, but exceeds capacity in operation, from Mauthner, op. cit. note 1. Note that data for India in Mauthner and Weiss (op. cit. note 1) are by fiscal year rather than by calendar year. 24 Jaideep Malaviya, “India: Sales Volume in 2013/2014 Far Below Expectations,” Solar Thermal World, 27 May 2014, http:// below-expectations; dominant a decade ago from Malaviya, “India: Statistics to Determine Vacuum Tube Market Share,” op. cit. note 23. In 2014, of the 607,751 m2 of subsidised collector area, 61% were vacuum tube collectors and 39% were flat plate collectors. 25 Mauthner, op. cit. note 1. 26 Turkey added more than 1.9 million m2 in 2013 for a year-end total of 15.67 million m2 , from Mauthner and Weiss, op. cit. note 1, and from Mauthner, op. cit. note 1. 27 Solrico, cited in Serkan Güngör and Bärbel Epp, “Turkey: State Activities in Solar Thermal Market Difficult to Research,” Solar Thermal World, 2 January 2015, http://www.solarthermalworld. org/content/turkey-state-activities-solar-thermal-market-difficult- research; remains small from Bärbel Epp, solrico, personal communication with REN21, 12 April 2015. 28 Epp, op. cit. note 27. 29 Based on data from Solar Heating Department (DASOL), Brazilian Association of Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Heating (ABRAVA), 2015, provided by Marcelo Mesquita via Mauthner, op. cit. note 1, and year-end 2013 capacity data from Mauthner and Weiss, op. cit. note 1, and from Mauthner, op. cit. note 1. 30 Drivers also include a growing awareness of sustainability issues, and are all from Filipa Cardoso, “Brazil: Residential Demand Drives Market,” Solar Thermal World, 24 July 2013, http:// drives-market. Solar thermal is competitive in Brazil due to good solar resources/weather conditions and high electricity prices—systems can pay off in two years. See also Alejandro Diego Rosell, “Brazil: Rising Electricity Prices Put Spotlight on Solar Thermal,” Solar Thermal World, 27 March 2014, http:// spotlight-solar-thermal, and DASOL, ABRAVA, cited in Bärbel Epp, “Brazil: Solar Thermal Market Diversifies in 2013,” Solar Thermal World, 25 July 2014, brazil-solar-thermal-market-diversifies-2013. 31 Shares are based on 2013 data from DASOL, ABRAVA, cited in Epp, op. cit. note 30. 32 Mexico from Mauthner and Weiss, op. cit. note 1, and Mauthner, op. cit. note 1; Colombia has experienced growth primarily in the hotel and healthcare sectors, from Alejandro Diego Rosell, “Colombia: New Law Promises Tax Incentives,” Solar Thermal World, 17 July 2014, colombia-new-law-promises-tax-incentives; El Salvador is seeing installations increase in the hotel and commercial sector (although no official statistics are available), due primarily to very high tariffs on commercial and industrial electricity use, from Arturo Solano, Tecnosolar, cited in Alejandro Diego Rosell, “El Salvador: Small Market with Growth Potential,” Solar Thermal World, 4 June 2014, growth-potential; Guatemala has estimated 10% annual growth (with about 26,000 m2 installed in 2013), mostly in the residential and commercial (gyms and hotels) sectors, due to high electricity prices and a good market environment, from Alejandro Diego Rosell, “Guatemala: Growth Without Subsidies,” Solar Thermal World, 26 June 2014, guatemala-growth-without-subsidies. Guatemala added about 26,000 m2 in 2013, estimated by Enersol, cited in idem. 33 European Commission, European Technology Platform Renewable Heating & Cooling, Common Vision for the Renewable Heating & Cooling Sector in Europe (Brussels: 2011), ftp://ftp.cordis.europa. eu/pub/etp/docs/rhc-vision_en.pdf. Also see text and references below regarding combi-systems and advanced technologies. 34 Approximately 2.14 GWth (3.05 million m2 of collector area) was added in 2013, and net capacity increased by about 1.75 GWth to 30.2 GWth (about 43.1 million m2 ), from ESTIF, Solar Thermal Markets in Europe: Trends and Market Statistics 2013 (Brussels: June 2014), p. 4, market_data/downloads/solar_thermal_markets2013_v01.pdf. 35 Robin M. Welling, “Foreword” in ESTIF, ibid., p. 3. 36 Spain saw a slight increase in 2013 over 2012, and further stabilisation was expected in 2014, due mainly to recovery in the construction industry, per ESTIF, op. cit. note 34; local incentives from Alejandro Diego Rosell, “Spain: Andalusia Incentives Continue Until June 2015,” Solar Thermal World, 18 January 2015, continue-until-june-2015; incentives and construction upturn from Epp, op. cit. note 18. Note that it was aggressive marketing rather than incentives that brought about increased sales in the key region of Andalucia, per Welling, op. cit. note 35, p. 3. 37 Decline in 2014 from Gerhard Stryi-Hipp, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems and European Technology Platform on Renewable Heating and Cooling, personal communication with REN21, 10 March 2015; sixth consecutive year based on peak in 2008 from Bärbel Epp, “Europe 1.19 GW and 15,000 Jobs Lost Since Boom Year of 2008,” Solar Thermal World, 29 June 2014, europe-119-gw-and-15000-jobs-lost-boom-year-2008. 38 Lack of stable and effective schemes and dearth of installers from Welling, op. cit. note 35, p. 3, and from ESTIF, op. cit. note 34, p. 4. The UK market was slow due greatly to a large number of rules and little promotion of solar thermal by the government, per Chris Laughton, “Great Britain: Performance of the Two UK Renewable Heat Incentive Schemes,” Solar Thermal World, 3 November 2014, two-uk-renewable-heat-incentive-schemes. Competition with other “green” options from Stryi-Hipp, op. cit. note 37, and from Bärbel Epp, “France: Mixed Feelings About 2015 Industry Development,” Solar Thermal World, 3 February 2015, http://www. industry-development. The most significant negative factor in the UK market is the feed-in tariff for solar electricity, from Epp, op. cit. note 18. 39 Largest installer based on data from Mauthner, op. cit. note 1; two-millionth system from Verband für Energieeffizienz und Erneuerbare Energien (BDH) and Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft e.V. (BSW-Solar), “2 Millionen Solarheizungen in Betrieb,” press release (Berlin/Köln: 5 February 2015), http://www.solarwirtschaft. de/fileadmin/media/pdf/PM_2-2014_BDH_BSW_Solarheizungen. pdf (using Google Translate); down 12% based on 2013 market data from Mauthner, op. cit. note 1. 40 Germany added 630 MWth (0.9 million m2 ) in 2014, for a total BACK

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