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GSR 2015 - Geothermal Power and Heat

48 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS Gaseous Biomass Industry Worldwide manufacture and installation of residential, farm, and community-scale biogas plants continued in 2014, as did expansion of facilities to upgrade biogas, sewage gas, and landfill gas to higher-quality biomethane for use as a vehicle fuel or for injection into the natural gas grid for power, transport, and heat generation. In Europe, biogas is derived from agricultural waste, manure, and energy crops (accounting for 5.1 GW of power production capacity), landfill gas (1.4 GW), and smaller amounts of sewage sludge and other sources. Production capacities and feedstock vary from country to country.144 Europe’s leading biogas manufacturers are based in Germany and include Schmack Biogas GmbH, MT-Energie, PlanET, and EnviTec.145 Growth was particularly strong in the Czech Republic (+15%) and the United Kingdom (+15.4%).146 The increase in UK biogas production was due primarily to an increase in agricultural biogas plants, from 39 to 62 plants (up 59%), driven largely by new support schemes.147 By contrast, a German policy amendmenti that signaled a shift away from biogas-based bio-power has raised concern that other EU countries and/or regional policy may follow suit.148 Europe is the world’s leading producer of biomethane, with 282 plants producing an estimated 9.4 TWh annually. Most biomethane production plants are in Germany (154 plants), Sweden (54 plants), and the Netherlands (23 plants).149 During 2014, 18 new production plants were completed.150 Elsewhere in the world, biogas is produced primarily by landfill- based plants or small-scale family digesters. The United States has more than 170 anaerobic digesters on farms (100 MW), 1,500 digesters at wastewater treatment plants (250 of which use the energy on site), and more than 560 landfill plants.151 In Brazil, six landfill plants are responsible for 68% of the country’s biogas production; two industrial plants account for an additional 26% share, and the remainder is produced by smaller agricultural, bio-waste, and sewage plants.152 In Asia, China generated about 15 billion m153 of biogas in 2014 (90 TWh of calorific energy).154 India has an estimated 4.75 million family biogas digesters and 12 bio-CNG plants.155 In South Korea, as of early 2014, a total of 82 biogas plants were producing2.58TWhannually;justoverhalfoftheproductionwas from landfills (52%), with large contributions from sewage sludge (37%) and bio-waste (food waste and digestible co-substrates) (10%).154 Despite some small-scale attempts, there has been little experience with biogas in Africa. Great distances, as well as a lack of infrastructure and cultural uptake, have impeded development.155 Production of biomethane is rare in Africa, but in 2014 Kenya began to construct its first grid-connected biomethane plant, which was expected to begin producing power in 2015.156 GEOTHERMAL POWER AND HEAT ■■ GEOTHERMAL MARKETS Geothermal resources provide energy in the form of electricity and direct heating and cooling, totalling an estimated 528 PJ (147 TWh) in 2014.1 Geothermal electricity generation is estimated to be half of the total final geothermal output (74 TWh), with the remainder representing direct use.ii 2 Some geothermal plants produce both electricity and thermal output for various heat applications. Approximately 640 MW of new geothermal power generating capacity was completed in 2014, bringing total global capacity close to 12.8 GW.3 Countries that added capacity in 2014 were (in order of new capacity brought on line) Kenya, Turkey, Indonesia, the Philippines, Italy, Germany, the United States, and Japan.4 (p See Figure 12.) Kenya accounted for more than half of new installations. At the end of 2014, the countries with the largest amounts of geothermal electric generating capacity were: the United States (3.5 GW), the Philippines (1.9 GW), Indonesia (1.4 GW), Mexico (1.0 GW), New Zealand (1.0 GW), Italy (0.9 GW), Iceland (0.7 GW), Kenya (0.6 GW), Japan (0.5 GW), and Turkey (0.4 GW).5 (p See Figure 13.) Global geothermal power generation in 2014 was 74 TWh.6 Total capacity in operation has grown at an average annualised rate of 3.6% for the last five years, while the average annualised growth in generation has been lower, at 1.8%.7 The global average capacity factor (utilisation) for geothermal power production has declined over this period, from about 71% in 2009 to about 66% in 2014. Average capacity factors were notably above-average in both Europe and Oceania, at around 80%, possibly explained in part by newer-than-average plant fleets.8 In addition to ageing plants, reasons for lower capacity factors may include the growing market share of binaryiii plants, ageing geothermal fields in some areas that have lower productive capacity than before, and variations in the accuracy of stated plant capacity.9 Kenya added 358 MW in 2014, more than doubling its stock to about 600 MW. Two 13 MW binary units were completed in February, expanding the Olkaria III complex to 110 MW.10 The 140 MW Olkaria IV was commissioned in October, and two more 70 MW units came on line at Olkaria I in December.11 Also of note, five mobile wellhead power plants, totalling 52 MW of capacity, began operations in 2014.12 These units are valued for their ability to enable rapid deployment of geothermal power resources.13 Turkey added an estimated 107 MW of geothermal generating capacity in 2014, increasing its capacity by about a third to 0.4 GW. All the units added were binary units in the range of 6–26 MW each.14 Turkey aims to deploy 1 GW of geothermal power by 2023.15 Indonesia increased its geothermal power capacity by about 5%, to 1.4 GW, as three new units came on line in 2014, the largest being the 55 MW Patuha Unit 1.16 Licensing for new i - Germany’s amendment to the FIT sets a cap on new biogas power capacity, per Agata Przadka and Erneszt Kovacs, Biogas Report 2014 (Brussels: European Biogas Association, 2014), http://european-biogas.eu/2014/12/16/4331/. ii - This does not include the renewable final energy output of ground-source heat pumps, which was estimated at 325 PJ (90 TWh) in 2014. iii - In a binary plant, the geothermal fluid heats and vaporises a separate working fluid, which drives a turbine for power generation. Each fluid cycle is closed, and the geothermal fluid is re-injected into the heat reservoir. In a conventional thermal power plant, the working fluid is water. Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) binary geothermal plants use an organic fluid with a lower boiling point than water, allowing effective and efficient extraction of heat for power generation from relatively low-temperature geothermal fields. The Kalina cycle is another variant for implementing a binary plant.

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