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GSR 2015

196 ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS – SOLAR PV 1 This was the Bell Labs’ first “Solar Battery.” See Eric Wesoff, “Happy 60th Anniversary to the Modern Solar Cell,” Greentech Media, 21 April 2014, https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/ read/Happy-60th-Anniversary-to-the-Modern-Solar-Cell; Clint Wilder, “On Its 60th Birthday, Solar PV Has Become a Major Contender,” Renewable Energy World, 14 May 2014, http://www. renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/05/on-its- 60th-birthday-solar-pv-has-become-a-major-contender. See also John Perlin, Let It Shine: The 6,000 Year Story of Solar Energy (Novato, CA: New World Library, 2013). 2 Figures of 40 GW and more than 177 GW from Gaëtan Masson, International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA-PVPS) and Becquerel Institute, personal communications with REN21, January–May 2015, and from European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2015-2019 (Brussels: forthcoming 2015); at least 38.7 GW added for total of 177 GW from IEA-PVPS, Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2014 (Brussels: 2015), http:// www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=trends0; 40–42 GW added, from PV Market Alliance, “The PV Market Alliance Estimates Photovoltaic Installations of 40 to 42 GW in 2014 After Final Numbers for 2013 Were Revised Down to 37 GW,” press release (Brussels: January 2015), https://pvmarketalliancedotcom.files. wordpress.com/2015/01/pv-market-alliance-press-release. pdf; 46 GW from Frankfurt School–United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy (FS–UNEP Centre) and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2015 (Frankfurt: 2015), http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/ global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-2015. 3 Masson, op. cit. note 2; Gaëtan Masson, “40 GW in 2014 – The Sky Is Not Always the Limit,” Becquerel Institute, 22 January 2015, http://becquerelinstitute.org/40-gw-2014-sky-always-limit/. 4 Based on 2014 year-end capacity and on 70.5 GW in operation at the end of 2011, from EPIA, Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2014-2018 (Brussels: 2014), p. 17, http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/ user_upload/Publications/44_epia_gmo_report_ver_17_mr.pdf. Figure 16 based on historical data from EPIA, op. cit. note 2, and on 2014 data from idem, from Masson, op. cit. note 2, and from IEA-PVPS, op. cit. note 2. 5 IEA-PVPS, op. cit. note 2. 6 Ibid. The nine countries in 2013 were China, Germany, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, Romania, the United Kingdom, and the United States, from IEA-PVPS, PVPS Report – Snapshot of Global PV 1992–2013: Preliminary Trends Information from the IEA PVPS Programme (Brussels: March 2014), http://www.iea-pvps.org/ fileadmin/dam/public/report/statistics/PVPS_report_-_A_ Snapshot_of_Global_PV_-_1992-2013_-_final_3.pdf; this was up from seven countries in 2012, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States, from IEA-PVPS, Trends 2013 in Photovoltaic Applications: Survey Report of Selected IEA Countries Between 1992 and 2012 (Brussels: 2013), http://iea-pvps.org/fileadmin/dam/public/report/statistics/ FINAL_TRENDS_v1.02.pdf. 7 Masson, op. cit. note 2; IEA-PVPS, op. cit. note 2. 8 C. Werner et al., “Global Installed Photovoltaic Capacity and Identification of Hidden Growth Markets,” in Proceedings of the European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference (Amsterdam: 22–26 September 2014), https://www.researchgate.net/ publication/266140481_Global_Installed_Photovoltaic_ Capacity_and_Identification_of_Hidden_Growth_Ma. 9 IEA-PVPS, op. cit. note 2; five countries had at least 10 GW, from idem. 10 At the end of 2014, Germany had 474 Watts per inhabitant, Italy 306 W, Belgium 275 W, Greece 235 W, the Czech Republic 203 W, and Japan 183 W, based on solar PV data from IEA-PVPS, op. cit. note 2, and from Masson, op. cit. note 2, and 2013 population data from World Bank, “World Development Indicators - Population, Total,” 2015, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, viewed 6 May 2015. 11 IEA-PVPS, op. cit. note 2. 12 China’s National Energy Board, cited in National Energy Administration (NEA), “2014 PV Statistics,” 9 March 2015, http:// www.nea.gov.cn/2015-03/09/c_134049519.htm (using Google Translate). Also from IEA-PVPS, op. cit. note 2. China’s cumulative installed capacity was more than 28 GW, with 23.38 GW of utility-scale projects and 4.67 GW of distributed generation, from NEA, “2014 PV Industry Development,” 15 February 2015, http:// www.nea.gov.cn/2015-02/15/c_133997454.htm (using Google Translate). Figure 17 based on country-specific data and on sources provided throughout this section. 13 Mainland China added 10.6 GW, of which 8.55 GW was in power plants and 2.05 GW was “distributed,” from NEA, “2014 PV Industry Development,” op. cit. note 12. 14 “Update 1-China to Install 17.8 GW of Solar Power in 2015-Regulator,” Reuters, 18 March 2015, http://af.reuters.com/ article/energyOilNews/idAFL3N0WK2U620150318?sp=true. 15 China’s National Energy Board, cited in NEA, “2014 PV Statistics,” op. cit. note 12. Inner Mongolia added 1.64 GW for a total just over 3 GW; Jiangsu added 1.52 GW for a total of 2.57 GW; and Qinghai added just over 1 GW for a total of 4.13 GW, from idem. 16 Reasons for falling short of targets included identification of rooftop ownership and of rooftops suitable for solar PV systems, as well as the complexity of the FIT, given that China pursued a self-consumption model, per Frank Haugwitz, Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory Co. Ltd, personal communication with REN21, 11 April 2015; also due to delayed approvals, per Bloomberg News Editors, “China Solar Project Delays Mean Japan Could Be Largest Market,” Renewable Energy World, 1 December 2014, http://www.renewableenergyworld. com/rea/news/article/2014/12/china-solar-project-delays- mean-japan-could-be-largest-market; problems included logistical challenges and profit seeking, per Doug Young, “New Energy – Reality Bites Into China Solar Growth,” Young China Biz, 24 November 2014, http://www.youngchinabiz.com/en/ new-energy-reality-bites-into-china-solar-growth/. 17 NEA, “2014 PV Industry Development,” op. cit. note 12. 18 Japan added 9,700 MW for a total of 23,299.2 MW from IEA-PVPS, op. cit. note 2. Figures of 9.7 GW added for a total of 23.3 GW from EPIA, op. cit. note 2. Note that Japan officially reports data in alternating current (AC); these sources have converted those data to direct current (DC) for consistency across countries. 19 First decline since 2007 from Junko Movellan, “Post-FIT Japan: Manufacturers Promote PV Systems with Inverter-Integrated Energy Storage Systems,” Renewable Energy World, 19 March 2015, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/ article/2015/03/post-fit-japan-manufacturers-promote-pv- systems-with-inverter-integrated-energy-storage-systems; 1.4 GW of residential capacity was installed in 2013 and 0.9 GW in 2014, for a total of 7.5 GW at end-2014, based on Japan’s FIT scheme data produced by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), available at http://www.fit.go.jp/statistics/public_sp.html (in Japanese) and provided by Hironao Matsubara, Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP), personal communication with REN21, 6 May 2015. 20 Demand drivers according to Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association (JPEA), cited in Andy Colthorpe, “Japanese Module Firms Maintain Stranglehold on Domestic Market,” PV-Tech, 26 November 2014, http://www.pv-tech.org/news/ domestic_firms_supply_vast_majority_of_japans_2.57gw_pv_ shipments_in_latest. Power retailers according to data from METI; the number of companies actually selling power was much lower than the number registered, all from Chisaki Watanabe, “Filling the Gap: Homebuilders, Restaurants Selling Clean Energy in Japan’s Power Market,” Renewable Energy World, 7 July 2014, http://www. renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/07/filling-the- gap-homebuilders-restaurants-selling-clean-energy-in-japans- power-market. 21 Chisaki Watanabe, “Rooftops, Empty Lots Offer Japan Space for Solar Panels,” Renewable Energy World, 25 April 2014, http:// www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/04/ rooftops-empty-lots-offer-japan-space-for-solar-panels. 22 Matsubara, op. cit. note 19. See also Chisaki Watanabe, “Solar’s $30 Billion Splurge Proves Too Much for Japan,” Bloomberg, 9 October 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-09/ japan-solar-boom-fizzling-as-utilities-limit-grid-access.html. See also Andy Colthorpe, “Warning of ‘Dangerous’ Public Backlash Against Solar in Japan,” PV-Tech, 23 July 2014, http://www. pv-tech.org/news/japans_price_driven_backlash_against_solar_ could_prove_extremely_dangerous, and “4 Power Companies Resume Purchase of Solar Power with More Control,” Mainichi Japan, 28 January 2015, http://mainichi.jp/english/english/ newsselect/news/20150128p2a00m0na004000c.html. 23 Matsubara, op. cit. note 19. See also: METI, “ANRE Compiled a Report Titled ‘Revision of the Current Operation System of the Feed-in Tariff Scheme Toward the Maximum Introduction of Renewable Energy,” 18 December 2014, http://www.meti. go.jp/english/press/2014/1218_01.html; METI, “Public Notices for Partially Revising the Ordinance for Enforcement of the Act on Special Measures Concerning Procurement of Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources by Electric Utilities,” press release (Tokyo: 22 January 2015), http://www.meti.go.jp/english/ press/2015/0122_02.html. 24 Matsubara, op. cit. note 19; “4 Power Companies Resume…,” BACK

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