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GSR 2015

ENDNOTES 01 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 180 turbine production from World Wind Energy Association (WWEA), Quarterly Bulletin, no. 2 (2013); Chinese indigenous capacity from National Development and Reform Commission, China’s 12th Five- Year Plan for Economic and Social Development (Beijing: 2011), from IRENA, REmap 2030: China (Masdar City: 2014), and from S. Zhang et al., “Interactions Between Renewable Energy Policy and Renewable Energy Industrial Policy: A Critical Analysis of China’s Policy Approach to Renewable Energies,” Energy Policy, vol. 62 (2013), pp. 342–53; reasons for underperformance from Dent, op. cit. this note; Thailand from Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency of Thailand website, http://www.dede. go.th/dede/index.php?lang=en. 24 Anamaria Dedulease, “Sub-Saharan Renewables Set to Roll,” Recharge News, 21 August 2014, http://www.rechargenews. com/wind/1373773/Sub-Saharan-renewables-set-to-roll; Mike Munsell, “Latin America’s Solar Market Grew 370% in 2014, Installed 625 MW,” Greentech Media, 29 January 2015, http:// www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Latin-Americas-Solar- Market-Grew-370-in-2014-Installed-625-MW. 25 Frankfurt School–United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy (FS–UNEP Centre) and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2015 (Frankfurt: 2015), http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/ global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-2015. 26 Based on investment data for 2014 from BNEF, 2015; GDP at purchasers’ prices for 2013 from World Bank, “World Development Indicators - GDP (current US$),” 2015, http://data.worldbank. org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, viewed 21 May 2015; population data for 2013 from World Bank, “World Development Indicators - Population, Total,” 2015, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ SP.POP.TOTL, viewed 15 May 2015. See Investment Flows section for more on BNEF data; note that small distributed capacity (solar PV <1 MW) is available only for countries investing USD 0.2 billion or more during the year. 27 Green bonds from Sean Kidney, “Last Reviews of the Year: Peru’s Energia Eolica ($204m) and Norway’s Vardar ($41m) Are New Issuers; Swedish Rikshem ($50m), Vaskronan ($68m) and Aligera ($13.5m) Return to Market,” ClimateBonds.net, 1 January 2015, http://www.climatebonds.net/2014/12/last- reviews-year-peru%E2%80%99s-energia-eolica-204m-and- norway%E2%80%99s-vardar-41m-are-new-issuers-swedish; yield companies from Tom Konard, “5 Clean Energy YieldCos You May Not Have Heard About,” Greentech Media, 8 September 2015, http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/five-clean- energy-yieldcos-you-may-not-have-heard-of. In 2014, new yieldcos were created for the first time in the UK and Canada. Yieldco equivalents in the UK are called quoted project funds, from idem. Securitisation from Eric Wesoff, “SolarCity’s New $210M Securitized Solar Portfolio Keeps the Capital Flowing,” Greentech Media, 25 July 2014, http://www.greentechmedia.com/ articles/read/SolarCitys-New-201M-Securitized-Solar-Portfolio- Keeps-the-Capital-Flowing. Two rounds of solar PV asset backed securities were issued in the United States in 2014, from idem. 28 There was 140 GW of pumped hydropower capacity installed by the end of 2014. By contrast, only 2 GW of thermal energy storage capacity was installed by the end of 2013. Transparency Market Research, Thermal Energy Storage Market to Be Hampered by High Upfront Investments (Albany, NY: 6 May 2015), http://www. transparencymarketresearch.com/pressrelease/thermal-energy- storage-market.htm. 29 Richard Martin, “Nearly 700 Megawatts of Energy Storage Capacity Have Been Announced in 2014-2015,” press release (Boulder, CO: Navigant Research, 24 February 2015), https://www. navigantresearch.com/newsroom/nearly-700-megawatts-of- energy-storage-capacity-have-been-announced-in-2014-2015. 30 Hyunjoo Jin, “Samsung SDI to Build Electric Car Battery Factory in China,” Reuters, 23 January 2014, http:// www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/23/us-samsung-sdi- idUSBREA0M03O20140123; Peter Elkind, “Tesla Closes on Free Nevada Land for Gigafactory,” Fortune, 28 October 2014, http://fortune.com/2014/10/28/tesla-closes-on-free- nevada-land-for-gigafactory//; Tom Randall, “Tesla’s Battery Grabbed $800 Million in Its First Week,” Bloomberg, 8 May 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-08/ tesla-s-battery-grabbed-800-million-in-its-first-week. 31 IEA, World Energy Outlook, op. cit. note 9, p. 204. 32 See Reference Table R1 and related endnote for details and references. 33 Ibid. 34 Based on total non-hydropower additions of approximately 100 GW, including an estimated 40 GW of solar PV and about 51 GW of wind power capacity. For details and references see Reference Table R1, Market and Industry Trends section, and related endnotes. 35 Figure of 58.5% based on a total of approximately 134.5 GW of renewable capacity added, as noted in this report, and on assumed net additions of 93–98 GW (average of 95.5 GW) nuclear and fossil fuel capacity, for a total of 230 GW global net additions, of which renewables account for 58.5%. Nuclear and fossil fuel estimate based on net capacity additions from all sources totalling 216 GW, renewables excluding “large hydro” (>50 MW) totalling additions of 103 GW, and large hydro additions of 15–20 GW, (and therefore the assumption that net additions of nuclear and fossil fuel capacity in 2014 were 93–98 GW), all from Angus McCrone, BNEF, personal communication with REN21, 22 April 2015, and from FS-UNEP Centre and BNEF, op. cit. note 25; European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), Wind in Power: 2014 European Statistics (Brussels: February 2015), pp. 7–8, http://www.ewea. org/fileadmin/files/library/publications/statistics/EWEA-Annual- Statistics-2014.pdf. 36 Renewable share of total global electric generating capacity is based on an estimated renewable total of 1,712 GW (see Reference Table R1 and related endnote for details and sources) and on total global electric capacity in the range of 6,180 GW. Estimated total world capacity for end-2014 is based on 2013 total of 5,950 GW, from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2014, op. cit. note 9, p. 201; on about 230 GW of net power capacity additions in 2014, as outlined in Endnote 35. 37 Share of generation based on the following: Total global electricity generation in 2014 is estimated at 23,480 TWh, based on 23,127 TWh in 2013 from BP, op. cit. note 9, and an estimated 1.52% growth in global electricity generation for 2014. The growth rate is based on the weighted average actual change in total generation for the following countries (which together account for two thirds of global generation in 2013): United States (+0.66% net generation), EU-28 (-2.93% gross generation), Russia (+0.1%), India (+9.45%), China (+3.6%), and Brazil (+2.1%). Sources for 2013 and 2014 electricity generation are: EIA, Electric Power Monthly, February 2015, Table 1.1; European Commission, Eurostat database, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat; System Operator of the Unified Power System of Russia, www.so-ups.ru; Government of India, Ministry of Power, Central Electricity Authority, “Monthly Generation Report,” www.cea.nic.in/monthly_gen.html; China Electricity Council (CEC), 10 February 2015, http://www.cec.org. cn/yaowenkuaidi/2015-03-10/134972.html; National Operator of the Electrical System of Brazil (ONS), http://www.ons.org. br/historico/geracao_energia.aspx. Hydropower generation in 2014 is estimated at 3,900 TWh, based on 2013 hydropower output of 3,782 TWh from BP, op. cit. note 9, as well as observed average year-on-year change in output (+3.77%) for top producing countries (China, Brazil, Canada, the United States, the EU-28, Russia, India, Norway, and Turkey), which together accounted for about three-fourths of global hydropower output. The combined hydropower output of these countries was up by 3.77% relative to 2013. Hydropower generation by country: United States from EIA, op. cit. this note; Canada from Statistics Canada, http:// www5.statcan.gc.ca; EU-28 from European Commission, op. cit. this note; Norway from Statistics Norway, www.ssb.no; Brazil from ONS, op. cit. this note; System Operator of the Unified Power System of Russia, op. cit. this note; Government of India, op. cit. this note; CEC, op. cit. this note; Turkey from Enerji Atlasi, 12 January 2015, http://www.enerjiatlasi.com/haber/elektrik- kurulu-gucu-2014-te-8-61-artti, and from Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, “Hidrolik,” http://www.enerji.gov. tr/tr-TR/Sayfalar/Hidrolik. Non-hydro renewable generation of 1,455 TWh was based on 2014 year-end generating capacities shown in Reference Table R1 and representative capacity factors in the relevant endnotes, or other specific estimates as detailed by technology in the Market and Industry section and Table 2. Figure 3 based on sources in this endnote. 38 Growth in global renewable electricity output of 5.9% for years 2007 through 2012 from IEA, op. cit. note 2. 39 Growth in global electricity output of 2.7%, and non-OECD electricity output of 5.6%, for years 2007 through 2012, from IEA, op. cit. note 2. 40 Denmark and Portugal from Feng Zhao et al., Global Wind Market Update—Demand & Supply 2014 (London: FTI Consulting LLP, March 2015), p. 117; Denmark met 39% of electricity demand with BACK

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