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GSR 2015

219 02 RENEWABLES 2015 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT have moved into areas with lower wind speeds; average levelised long-term prices from wind power sales agreements that were signed in the United States in 2013 were around USD 25/MWh, from Ryan Wiser et al., 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report (Washington, DC: U.S. DOE, August 2014), Executive Summary, p. ix, http://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/08/f18/2013%20 Wind%20Technologies%20Market%20Report_1.pdf; also in the United States, wind power costs declined by more than one-third between 2008 and 2013, and, “in some markets with excellent wind resource and transmission availability, wind power sales prices are competitive with fossil generation,” from U.S. DOE, Wind Vision: A New Era for Wind Power in the United States (Oak Ridge, TN: March 2015), pp. xxvi–xxviii, http://energy.gov/windvision. In Brazil, wind power is very competitive, although the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) is marginally higher than in the United States, from Sawyer, op. cit. note 48. Mexico and Turkey from Zhao et al., op. cit. note 1, pp. 35, 37. Also, in Australia, unsubsidised renewable energy is now cheaper than electricity from new-build coal- and gas-fired power stations (including cost of emissions under new carbon pricing scheme), per Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), “Renewable Energy Now Cheaper Than New Fossil Fuels in Australia,” 7 February 2013, http://about.bnef. com/2013/02/07/renewable-energy-now-cheaper-than-new-fossil- fuels-in-australia/; the best wind projects in India can generate power and the same costs as coal-fired power plants and cheaper in some locations, per Ravi Kailas, CEO of India’s third-largest wind farm developer, cited in Natalie Obiko Pearson, “Wind Installations ‘Falling Off a Cliff’ in India,” Bloomberg, 26 November 2012, http:// www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/11/wind- installations-falling-off-a-cliff-in-india; cheaper in some locations from Greenko Group Plc, cited in Natalie Obiko Pearson, “In Parts of India, Wind Energy Proving Cheaper Than Coal,” Bloomberg, 18 July 2012, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/ article/2012/07/in-parts-of-india-wind-energy-proving-cheaper- than-coal; many EU countries from Stefan Gsänger, WWEA, personal communication with REN21, 16 April 2014. 94 Over the five-year period from Q3 2009 to the second half of 2014, from Frankfurt School–UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance (FS-UNEP Centre) and BNEF, Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2014 (Frankfurt: 2015). In the United States, LCOE fell 58% from 2009 to 2014, per Lazard, Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis—Version 8.0, September 2014, p. 9, http://www.lazard.com/PDF/Levelized%20Cost%20 of%20Energy%20-%20Version%208.0.pdf. 95 Sawyer, op. cit. note 6. For example, in early 2015 the winning bid from Vattenfall for the 400 MW project Horns Rev 3 (Denmark) was for USD 125 (EUR 103/MWh) (a function of the unique conditions of the project), from Shukla, op. cit. note 3. In addition, a new Iberdrola project came in at costs much lower than expected, from Sawyer, op. cit. note 6. Offshore wind costs in the UK fell almost 11% from 2011 to 2014, based on completed as well as unbuilt projects, per The Crown Estate, “Offshore Wind Costs Falling Faster Than Expected,” 26 February 2015, http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/news-and-media/news/2015/ offshore-wind-costs-falling-faster-than-expected/. 96 IEA, op. cit. note 80, p. 10; Japan from Navigant Research, World Market Update 2013: International Wind Energy Development. Forecast 2014-2018 (Copenhagen: March 2014), Executive Summary. China was home to 8 of the top 15 manufacturers, from idem; France from Feng Zhao, FTI Consulting, personal communication with REN21, 13 April 2015. 97 IEA, op. cit. note 80, p. 11. See also GWEC, Global Wind Report— Annual Market Update 2013 (Brussels: April 2014), p. 17, http:// www.gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/GWEC-Global- Wind-Report_9-April-2014.pdf, p. 40. Turbine manufacturers are located in many other countries as well. For example, in 2013 Argentinean firm IMPSA sold 574 MW to the Brazilian market, from Gonzalo Bravo, Fundación Bariloche, personal communication with REN21, 16 April 2014. 98 FTI Consulting, Global Wind Supply Chain Update 2015 (London: January 2015), Executive Summary. 99 68% based on data from Zhao et al., op. cit. note 1, p. 19. Figure of 70% in 2013 from Navigant Research, op. cit. note 96. Down from 77% in 2012 per Navigant’s BTM Consult, World Market Update 2012 (Copenhagen: March 2013). 100 Zhao et al., op. cit. note 1, pp. xii, 18–19. Vestas was first and Siemens second (up three steps from 2013 rankings) from GlobalData, cited in “Vestas Tops Global Wind Podium,” reNEWS, 10 March 2015, http://renews.biz/85417/ vestas-tops-global-wind-podium/. 101 Zhao et al., op. cit. note 1, pp. xii, 18–19. Goldwind held onto third, GE was fourth (not on top five list in 2013), and Enercon slipped from second to fifth per GlobalData, cited in “Vestas Tops Global Wind Podium,” op. cit. note 100. 102 Zhao et al., op. cit. note 1, pp. xii, 18–19. Ranking of these countries was Suzlon Group (6), United Power (7), Gamesa (8), Mingyang (9), and Envision (10); Suzlon sold Senvion in early 2015, but the two companies are covered as one for 2014; if listed separately Senvion ranks tenth and Suzlon drops out of the top 10, from Zhao et al., op. cit. note 1, p. 19. Note that Suzlon dropped from fifth in 2013 to 10th in 2014, per GlobalData, cited in “Vestas Tops Global Wind Podium,” op. cit. note 100. Five Chinese manufacturers (Goldwind, Sanyi, Sinovel, Mingyang, and XEMC) exported products to the international market to 28 countries in 2014, from Shi, op. cit. note 13. Figure 24 based on data from Zhao et al., op. cit. note 1, pp. xii, 19. 103 FTI Consulting, cited in “Vestas Tops Turbine Table”, reNEWS, 23 February 2015, http://renews.biz/84494/vestas-tops-turbine- table/; Feng Zhao, FTI Consulting, cited in Charlotte Malone, “Record Breaking Year for Wind Turbine Manufacturers,” blueandgreentomorrow.com, 23 February 2015, http:// blueandgreentomorrow.com/2015/02/23/2014-a-record- breaking-year-for-wind-turbine-manufacturers/. 104 In Latin America, for example, wind power projects are being delayed due to lack of grid infrastructure, from Gonzalo Bravo, Fundación Bariloche, personal communication with REN21, 14 January 2014; grid connection remains a major challenge for offshore wind, particularly off Germany’s coast, from B. Neddermann, “German Offshore Market Growing Despite Problems with Grid Connection,” DEWI Magazin, February 2014, p. 55, http://www.dewi.de/dewi/fileadmin/pdf/publications/ Magazin_44/09.pdf, and from Ender, op. cit. note 32; an issue formerly seen in the developing world/emerging markets of Latin America and China, is now seen in the established market of Germany, where electricity is re-routed through Poland and the Czech Republic, from Aris Karcanias, FTI Consulting, personal communication with REN21, 14 April 2014; curtailment and inability to integrate in several countries, including China and India, from Shruti Shukla, GWEC, personal communication with REN21, 19 March 2014, also from Sawyer, op. cit. note 13 and op. cit. note 11. 105 Sawyer, op. cit. note 104, both references. 106 Overcapacity from FTI Consulting, op. cit. note 90, both references. Operating at partial capacity from Navigant Research, “Supply Chain Assessment 2014—Wind Energy,” http://www. navigantresearch.com/research/supply-chain-assessment- 2014-wind-energy, viewed 11 February 2015. Navigant has estimated that global annual turbine manufacturing capacity in 2014 exceeded 71 GW, from Navigant Research, “Global Wind Turbine Manufacturing Capacity Has Far Surpassed Demand,” 8 December 2014, http://www.navigantresearch.com/newsroom/ global-wind-turbine-manufacturing-capacity-has-far-surpassed- demand. 107 Navigant Research, “Supply Chain Assessment 2014—Wind Energy,” op. cit. note 106. 108 Yang Jianxiang, “Curtailment Solutions Boost Confidence in China,” Wind Power Monthly, 30 September 2014, http://www. windpowermonthly.com/article/1314288/curtailment-solutions- boost-confidence-china; Judy Chen, “China Clean Energy Defaults Loom Amid Record Debt Loads,” Renewable Energy World, 5 September 2014, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ rea/news/article/2014/09/china-clean-energy-defaults-loom- amid-record-debt-loads; Liu Yuanyuan, “China’s Wind Power Industry Shows Overall Recovery,” Renewable Energy World, 19 August 2014, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/ article/2014/08/chinas-wind-power-industry-shows-overall- recovery; Judy Chen, “China Wind Manufacturer Sinovel Seeks to Avert Default,” Renewable Energy World, 23 December 2014, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/12/ china-wind-manufacturer-sinovel-seeks-to-avert-default. 109 EurObserv’ER, op. cit. note 1, p. 14. In Spain, lack of new investment is directly affecting the wind industry, and companies have been forced to close factories and consider whether to leave, from Asociación Empresarial Eólica (AEE), “The Spanish Wind Power Industry Installed Less Than 0.1 MW in the First Semester Due to the Regulatory Situation,” press release (Madrid: 29 July 2014), http://www.aeeolica.org/uploads/140729_NP_The_ Spanish_wind_power_industry_installed_less_than_0.1_MW_ in_the_first_semester.pdf. 110 GE (USA), Siemens (Germany), and Vestas (Denmark) cut BACK 9968% based on data from Zhao et al., op. cit. note 1, p. 19. Figure of

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