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GSR 2015 - Solar Thermal Heating and Cooling

66 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS SOLAR THERMAL HEATING AND COOLING ■■ SOLAR THERMAL HEATING AND COOLING MARKETS Solar thermal technologies contribute significantly to hot water production in many countries, and increasingly to space heating and cooling as well as industrial processes. In 2013i , global market growth slowed due largely to declining markets in Europe and China.1 The world installed 55 GWth (789.6 million m2 ) of solar heat capacity, up from 54.1 GWth (77.3 million m3 ) in 2012.4 Cumulative capacity of all collector types in operation rose by a net 44 GWth for a year-end total of 374.7 GWth ii .5 An estimated 53.3 GWth (96.8%) of the new installations in 2013 was glazed water systems, and the rest was unglazed water systems mainly for swimming pool heating (3.1%), as well as unglazed and glazed air collector systems (0.1%).6 Globally, solar thermal accounts for about 1.2% of water and space heating in buildings.7 Glazed and unglazed water collectors provided an estimated 313.7 TWh (1,129 PJ) of heat in 2013.8 The vast majority of solar heat capacity is in China, which accounted for nearly 81% of the world market for water collectors and 70% of total capacity that year.iii9 (p See Figure 19.) The top five countries for capacity added in 2013, including both glazed and unglazed water systems, were China, Turkey, Brazil, India, and Germany (with the United States close behind); including air collectors, the United States was slightly ahead of Germany.10 The top five countries for total capacity in operation remained China, the United States, Germany, Turkey, and Brazil.11 (R See Figure 20 and Reference Table R9.) Most countries focus on glazed water collectors, with both China and India primarily installing evacuated tube water collectors (ETC), and other key markets relying mainly on flat plate collectors (FPC).12 In the United States, the majority of systems use unglazed watercollectorsforpoolheating.Theonlyothermarketsofnotefor unglazed water collectors are Australia and Brazil.13 About three- fourths of all solar thermal systems installed are thermosyphon systems, and the rest are pumped systems (common mainly in North America and Central and Northern Europe).14 The slowdown in market growth continued in 2014, when total capacity of water collectors increased by an estimated 33 GWth (47.6 million m15 ), bringing operating global solar thermal capacity to about 406 GWth 16 (p See Figure 21.) There was enough capacity by year’s end to provide approximately 341 TWh (1,228 PJ) of heat annually.17 Domestic hot water systems for single-family homes remained the most important market segment.18 China was again the primary driver of demand for new solar thermal capacity in 2014. However, following several years of rapid growth, China’s market was down nearly 18% relative to 2013.19 About 36.7 GWth (52.4 million m20 ) was installed, of which about 27 GWth was additional (about 26% of the new collectors replaced existing capacity), bringing China’s total operating capacity to 289.5 GWth.21 China is seeing a trend away from the retail market to commercial projects. Retail business, including in the rural residential sector, has slowed due to some market saturation in several provinces and to competition with heat pumps.22 Provincial and municipal solar thermal obligations and construction of new residential (including government-supported low-income) buildings are driving demand for FPCs and more-sophisticated building- integrated installations.23 Also notable is the share of projects to provide hot water in schools, universities, and hotels—where the preference is for large-scale centralised rooftop systems with large water tanks.24 Growth in these sectors, however, did not offset losses in the rural residential market, which remains significant but is stable or declining.25 India and Japan are the largest Asian markets outside of China. After an exceptional 2012 due to a generous investment subsidy, India’s market declined in 2013 because of a delay in incentive payments.26 In 2014, the country added 0.8 GWth (1.1 million m27 ), a market increase of 8% relative to 2013, for a total of 4.7 GWth (6.8 million m28 ).29 India is seeing increased interest in ETCs (mostly from China), which cost less than FPCs (the dominant technology a decade ago).30 Japan’s market declined about 9% during 2012 and 2013, and cumulative capacity is declining due to decommissioning of old systems.31 Turkey continues to be an important market and ranked second in 2013 for new installations. (As of publication, data for 2014 were not available.) In 2013, Turkey saw another year of market expansion (up 18% over 2012), adding 1.3 GWth to end the year with nearly 11 GWth and to retain its fourth-place ranking for total operating capacity.32 The fastest-growing market segments in 2014 appeared to be multi-family houses, although this remains a small segment.33 The market for residential solar water heaters with ETC is expanding as well.34 Brazil ranked third for new installations in 2013; in 2014, the market expanded by an estimated 4.5% relative to 2013, for a year-end capacity of 7.7 GWth (11 million m35 ).36 Demand is driven largely by the economic competitiveness of solar thermal in Brazil and by municipal building regulations and social housing programmes—such as Minha Casa, Minha Vida (“My House, My Life”)—that mandate solar water heaters in new buildings for very poor families.37 The residential sector is the largest market (about 60%), followed by social housing (19%), the commercial sector (18%), and process heat (3%).38 Elsewhere in the region, Mexico is starting to play a role, ranking eleventh globally for new capacity in 2013, and Colombia, El Salvador, and Guatemala have seen growth even without public incentives.39 The European Union (EU-28) continues to support a greater diversity of uses for solar thermal heat technologies than any other market.40 At the same time, the region’s market has continued to contract. In 2013, Europe’s annual market declined 11% to 2.14 GWth, down one-third from the 2008 peak, for a year- end total of 30.2 GWth.41 All large markets shrank—including Denmark and Poland, which saw significant growth in 2012.42 The exception was Spain, where the market began to stabilise i - The year 2013 is the most recent year for which firm global data and most country statistics are available. This section includes a mix of 2013 and 2014 data, depending on what was available at time of publication, and the text specifies the relevant year. ii - Data include air collectors; gross water heating collector capacity additions in 2013 were just under 55 GWth, for a year-end total of 373 GWth. Note that, in 2014, China settled on a new methodology for calculating cumulative capacity, which assumes a 10-year lifetime for Chinese-made systems. Because China is such a large market, this change has a significant effect on the global total. Data have been adjusted to reflect this change: China’s total for end- 2012 was adjusted upwards to 226.2 GWth, and the 2013 total was 262.3 GWth; the world total for 2012 was adjusted upwards to 330.7 GWth including air collectors, and 329 GWth without them. (See Endnote 3 for this section.) iii - China’s shares for all solar collectors (including air) are only a fraction lower.

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