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ePaper created 2014-06-03, 15:03:20 | version 1.30.01
56 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS South Africa’s supply chain has been in a consolidation phase, with the number of commercial entities in the solar water heater market falling from a high of over 700 in 2011 to about 400 in 2013.70 Brazil had about 150 solar thermal suppliers by mid- 2013.71 While most focussed on the domestic market, a small number of companies were exporting to other countries in the region.72 In 2013, industry expectations for current and future market development were brightest in India and Greece.73 Manufacturers inIndiaexpandedproductioncapacitiesandintegratedvertically in response to rapid market growth.74 Production costs of solar thermal heat technologies have continued to decline. In Europe, for instance, production costs of standard collectors fell about 23% for every doubling of installed capacity from 1995 to 2012, or nearly 50% over the period.75 And new technologies continue to emerge. For example, by early 2014 there were more than 130 hybrid solar thermal-heat pump systems from more than 80 companies (mostly in Europe) for combined production of domestic water and space heating.76 About 30 companies in at least 12 countries were making a variety of photovoltaic thermal (PV-T) hybrid solar collectors that combine solar PV and thermal water collectors for simultaneous production of power and heat.77 Attention to quality standards and certification continued in response to high failure rates associated with cheap tubes from China, and harmonisation of standards and certification played an important role in the industry’s export strategies.78 In September, the International Standard Committee approved a global collector test standard, paving the way for a variety of new collector technologies to receive a Solar Keymark label in Europe.79 In addition, several countries are working on domestic standards.80 A growing number of manufacturers around the world specialise in concentrating collectors for industrial applications.81 Solar process heat is already competitive in many niche markets today, but the technology is not widely known.82 The cost of solar cooling kits continues to fall, declining by 45–55% (depending on system size) over the period 2007– 2012.83 The variety of thermal chillers continued to increase in 2013, as did their standardisation.84 At least two European companies released new chillers for small systems down to 5 kW, and companies in Europe and Asia introduced cooling kits that include integrated heat rejection (which removes waste heat generated by the system).85 Alternative heat rejection systems are under development to reduce costs and planning time.86 In addition to new chillers, innovative technologies continue to emerge, particularly for large-scale and industrial systems.87 WIND POWER ■■ WIND POWER MARKETS More than 35 GW of wind power capacity was added in 2013, bringing the global total above 318 GW.1 (See Figure 19 and Reference Table R10.) Following several record years, the wind power market declined nearly 10 GW compared to 2012, reflecting primarily a steep drop in the U.S. market.2 The top 10 countries accounted for 85% of year-end global capacity, but there are dynamic and emerging markets in all regions.3 By the end of 2013, at least 85 countries had seen commercial wind activity, while at least 71 had more than 10 MW of reported capacity by year’s end, and 24 had more than 1 GW in operation.4 Annual growth rates of cumulative wind power capacity have averaged 21.4% since the end of 2008, and global capacity has increased eightfold over the past decade.5 Asia remained the largest market for the sixth consecutive year, accounting for almost 52% of added capacity, followed by the EU (about 32%) and North America (less than 8%).6 Non-OECD countries were responsible for the majority of installations, and, for the first time, Latin America had a substantial share (more than 4.5%).7 China led the market, followed distantly by Germany, the United Kingdom, India, and Canada. Others in the top 10 were the United States, Brazil, Poland, Sweden, and Romania, and new markets continued to emerge in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.8 The leading countries for wind power capacity per inhabitant were Denmark (863 W per person), Sweden (487.6), Spain (420.5), Portugal (412), and Ireland (381).9 China added an estimated 16.1 GW of new capacity in 2013, increasing total installed capacity by 21% to 91.4 GW.10 (See Figure 20.) About 14.1 GW was integrated into the grid, with approximately 75.5 GW in commercial operation by year’s end.11 Difficulties continued in transmitting power from turbines (particularly in remote northeast areas) to population demand centres, and about 16 TWh lost due to curtailment.12 However, new transmission lines and turbine deployment in areas with better grid access are reducing the number of idled turbines, and the rate of curtailment dropped from 17% in 2012 to 11% in 2013.13 Wind generated 140.1 billion kWh in China during 2013, up 40% over 2012 and exceeding nuclear generation for the second year running.14 By year’s end, almost 25% of total capacity was in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, followed by Hebei (10%), Gansu (9.1%), and Liaoning (7.3%) provinces, but wind continued its spread across China—10 provinces had more than 3 GW of capacity.15 The European Union remained the top region for cumulative wind capacity, with 37% of the world’s total, although Asia was nipping at its heels with more than 36%.16 Wind accounted for the largest share (32%) of new EU power capacity in 2013; more than 11 GW of wind capacity was added for a total exceeding 117 GW.17 Europe is experiencing a seaward shift, with the offshore market up 34%.18 However, the total market in the region was down 8% relative to 2012, and financing of new projects is becoming more challenging in response to policy uncertainty and declining incentives.19 Germany and the United Kingdom accounted for 46% of new EU installations, a level of concentration not seen since 2007.20