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ePaper created 2014-06-03, 15:03:20 | version 1.30.01
101 06 RENEWABLES 2014 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT 06 TRACKING THE GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION A DECADE OF UNPRECEDENTED MOMENTUM FOR RENEWABLES Christine Lins (Executive Secretary of REN21) Hannah Murdock (REN21 Secretariat) The evolution of renewable energy over the past decade has surpassed all expectations. Global installed capacity and production from all renewable technologies have increased substantially, and supporting policies have continued to spread to more countries in all regions of the world. REN21 was the first international organisation to begin tracking renewable energy development after its founding in 2004, and it hascontinuedtoprovidethemostcomprehensiveglobaloutlookon the state of renewables each year. The REN21 Renewables Global Status Report (GSR) has become increasingly comprehensive during the past decade as the landscape of renewable energy has become ever-more complex. While the first GSR was written by a single person with input from a small network of experts, today it draws on an international network of over 500 people, who participate collaboratively in its production. REN21’s 10th anniversary this year provides the opportunity to reflect on the remarkable advances of renewable energy technologies over the past decade and to consider their promise for the future. ■■ EXPANSION BEYOND EXPECTATIONS Developmentsintheearly2000sshowedupwardstrendsinglobal renewable energy investment, capacity, and integration across all sectors. Yet most mainstream projections did not predict the extraordinary expansion of renewables that was to unfold over the decade ahead. Scenarios from the renewable energy industry, the International Energy Agency, the World Bank, Greenpeace, and others all projected levels of renewable energy for the year 2020 that were already well exceeded by 2010.1 Several factors set the foundation for this rapid growth. Energy crises beginning in the 1970s, and economic downturns following each global oil shock, underscored the role of energy in national and economic security. At the same time, a handful of pioneering countries—such as Germany, Denmark, Spain, and the United States—created critical early markets for renewables, which drove early technological advances and economies of scale, setting the stage and helping to fuel the past decade of explosive market expansion. Growing emphasis on mitigating climate change and adapting to its impacts has further contributed to the momentum. Renewable energy’s contribution to the global heat, power, and transport sectors has increased steadily; growth in renewables’ share of total energy use has been moderated by increases in both population and world energy demand, most notably in developing and emerging economies.2 Renewable energy markets and technology developments have accelerated quickly, even compared to other rapidly developing technologies such as mobile phones. Hydropower continues to claim the largest share of renewable electric capacity and generation worldwide.3 In 2004, hydropowerdwarfedallotherrenewableelectricitytechnologies, but today non-hydro renewables generate large and growing shares of electricity in an increasing number of countries. While hydropower leads globally in terms of electricity generation, biomass accounts for the largest portion of renewable energy production. The share of traditional biomass in global primary energy has held steady or declined in the past decade, while modern biomass has gained ground.4 Wind capacity has grown by a factor of more than eight since the beginning of 2004. Dynamic wind power markets are now located throughout the world rather than just in a few countries in Europe and the United States, as they were back in 2004. By the end of 2013, 24 countries had more than 1,000 MW of wind capacity, including emerging economies such as China, India, and Brazil, which have experienced rapid growth.5 The average size of installed wind turbines has doubled over the past 10 years, and technological improvements have reduced the costs of wind-generated electricity significantly, making wind power competitive with new fossil fuels in many markets today.6 Solar PV has been the fastest growing energy technology by far, with global capacity experiencing an extraordinary 53-fold increase between the beginning of 2004 and the end of 2013.7 The last decade has seen a spectacular decline in solar PV costs due to technology advances, the increasing scale of industrial production,andimprovedefficiencyofsolarPVcellsandmodules. With a learning rate of 18–22% for each doubling of installed capacity, solar PV module prices have dropped dramatically over the past two decades; prices fell 60% during 2011–2012 alone.8 In the solar PV industry, the most striking development has been seen in China, which now dominates global module production. Also, China has risen from near-zero levels 10 years ago to become the world’s largest market in 2013.9