Climate Change: the Immediate Task
The pressure is mounting on governments to come up with something useful at the climate summit in Bali this December. The overwhelming momentum to forge a comprehensive climate agreement for the period from 2012 to 2020 that builds upon and improves the basic architecture of the Kyoto Protocol is becoming virtually irresistible. The critical period to 2020 is when the science tells us global greenhouse gas emissions need to peak and then start to decline if we are to avoid the worst climate damages. Governments need to focus on this critical task.
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Post-Kyoto build-up
Steve Sawyer relates to the build-up before the Bali Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC, which has dominated policy events in the last two months. Governments are expected to negotiate a post-2012 arrangement by end of 2009, as well as a timetable leading to this accord.

The period up to 2020 will be decisive for the success of climate change mitigation. The suite of renewable energy technologies offers several options that can break the CO2 growth trend in the next decade when combined with aggressive measures to improve energy efficiency. Consequently, the terms and ratification of the post-2012 regime within the climate convention will directly influence the magnitude and scope of renewable energy development in the next decade.

Different Parties to the UNFCC Convention and the UNFCCC Secretariat have expressed expectations about the quality, characteristics and categories of the agreement, but hardly to the specific content. The EU has made an impressive move to incite commitments by defining its own binding mitigation target for the end of the 2012-2020 period and offering a higher target under the condition that other parties make serious commitments.

Until now, however, this has not led to a hoped-for round of pledges. The US, Canada and Australia seem to have abandoned the game of “after you!” in favour of joint initiatives with the new major emitters, including soft targets and offers of technology transfer. These targets, however, are so unambitious, and the initiatives offer so little to the individual developing country, that key actors such as China are becoming impatient. China has offered its rather ambitious national climate change action programme, and might agree to more if only the bull in the shop would move – and without shattering the chinaware.

None of the parties, nor the UNFCCC Secretariat or the UN General Assembly has suggested an idea of what a post-Kyoto arrangement could look like. This vacuum was filled by a group of elder statespersons called the Global Leadership for Climate Action (GLCA), which presented a Post-2012 Agreement on Climate Change to the Gleneagles Dialogue in September and received much praise and appreciation for it.

Sustainable biomass?
Biomass has come more under scrutiny for its potential - or lack of -sustainability. Several proposals have been put forward to develop product quality standards and sustainability criteria, but there is no international forum or other institution to negotiate them. It looks like unilateral action to set standards will be taken by exporting and importing countries now that can be used to develop a multilateral system later. At the same time, rising prices for wheat and maize have not only set alarm bells ringing about food security, but also demonstrated the economic risks of a biomass path built on grain feedstocks.

Feed-in tariffs
The trend towards policies that promote specific technologies continues. Countries in Asia and even several US States plan feed-in systems with substantial differentiation of tariffs. In Europe the debate on renewable energy policies goes on, fuelled by electricity generators and financing intermediates that prefer obligations and green certificates, in spite of empirical evidence showing that such measures underperform compared with feed-in tariffs. To achieve renewable energy targets set in the beginning of 2007, there is little time for new experiments, and the pressure is on to take proven and well-known paths. In July, the German Environment Minister presented the progress report on the Renewable Energy Sources Act as an “outstanding success story”.
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Global Leaders present proposal for framework of post-2012 agreement
As a timely contribution for the Gleneagles Ministers Meeting in Berlin, the Global Leadership for Climate Action (GLCA), a task force formed by the Club of Madrid and the UN Foundation, presented eleven recommendations for a post-2012 climate change agreement. REN21 Chairman Mohamed El-Ashry facilitated the work, which was presented by Chile’s Ex-President, Ricardo Lagos. Numerous delegates in the Gleneagles Dialogue suggested adopting the proposal as a reference.
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Gleneagles Dialogue fuels hope for a post-2012 agreement
Statements from large developing countries sparked fresh expectations for negotiations of a post-Kyoto agreement. The statements came in September at the 3rd Meeting of Environment and Energy Ministers in the Gleneagles Dialogue on Climate Change in Berlin. REN21 was invited to present the potential for renewable energy in the 20 large economies represented in the dialogue.
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UNFCCC Vienna Talks on building blocks for post 2012 agreement
Both elements of the “Vienna Talks” in August were highly relevant for renewable energy, though indirectly. In the first, the Ad-hoc Working Group (AWG) on Further Commitments, the focus of the debate was information from IPCC Working Group III’s contribution to the 4th Assessment Report, which indicates that global emissions of greenhouse gases need to peak within the next 10 to 15 years and be reduced to levels well below half those in 2000 by 2050.

The second, Convention Dialogue, was concentrated around the information from the UNFCCC financing study on the need and ways to finance over USD 200 billion of investments for climate change mitigation by 2030, including major investments for renewable energy.
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UN High-Level Event urges action, but remains unspecific
According to the Chair of the UN High-Level event on Climate Change on September 24th, the event has largely reached its objective to galvanize political will for the Bali Conference. In a carefully phrased conclusion, meant to be as inclusive as possible, the Chair included all theoretical mitigation contributions, vague as they might be.
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US-President Bush says renewable energy is a major option
Addressing the Major Economies Meeting on Energy Security and Climate Change on September 28th, US President Bush came a long way from his previous stance on climate change, proposing long-term reduction goals. Bush also proposed a meeting of Heads of State to define these goals and actions, and an international clean technology fund. He championed wind, solar and next generation biofuels, but carefully avoided reference to a post-2012 agreement.
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APEC Leaders emit specific declaration on climate change
In September, Heads of State attending the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum pledged in the Sydney Declaration strong support for reaching a post-2012 agreement. The Heads of State from regions that produce, trade and use much of the world’s coal set the focus of the declaration on technologies that would clean fossil fuels, and considered renewable energy as a means to diversify energy supplies. In the Declaration leaders aspire to increase energy efficiency by 25% from 2005 to 2025, although APEC-Member China intends to increase efficiency by 20% from 2005 to as early as 2010.
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ASEAN Energy Ministers confirm renewable energy goals
During their 25th Meeting in August, Energy Ministers from the Association of South East Asian Nations confirmed their goal to increase the region’s share of renewable energy in power generation to 10% by 2010. The also resolved to cooperate to promote sustainable biofuels.
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OECD Panel fuels debate on sustainable biofuels
The OECD Roundtable on Sustainable Development presented several recommendations in September for the further global development of biofuels. Recommendations were based on a critical study of the potential, cost and CO2 intensities of biofuels from energy crops.
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US Government announced WIREC Date
US Under Secretary of State, Paula Dobriansky, gathered stakeholders in the renewable energy industry together on October 2nd in Washington to discuss goals and outcomes for the US government-sponsored Washington International Renewable Energy Conference (WIREC) 2008.
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World Energy Congress: Windpower from the Colosseum
The World Energy Council is using windpower as principal visual theme of advertising for its Rome 2007 congress in November 2007. Time will tell whether this reflects a real change in the orientation of the organisation dominated by large power producers.
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REN21 congratulates IPCC on Nobel Peace Prize
REN21 Chairman Mohamed El-Ashry congratulated the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on winning the Nobel Peace Prize. IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri is a member and former Chair of the REN21 Steering Committee. The Prize is shared with former US Vice-President Al Gore.
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Substantial contribution from renewables to all energy markets
In its intermediate report on renewable energy potentials in large economies, REN21 shows opportunities of renewables to cover major parts of electricity and heat supply markets, as well as significant parts of the transport fuel markets.
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REN21 elects Bureau 2007/2008
At the 6th Meeting of the REN21 Steering Committee, members elected the REN21 Bureau. Mohamed El-Ashry continues to be the Chairman. Vice-Chairs are Mika Obayashi, Michael Eckart, David Hales, Junfeng Li and Urban Rid.
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India joins REN21 Steering Committee
Sri V. Subramanian, General Secretary of the Indian Federal Ministry of New and Renewable Energy joined the REN21 Steering Committee and was heartily welcomed in the 6th SC meeting.
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Steering Committee defines catalyst role for REN21
The 6th meeting of the REN21 Steering Committee featured the presentation of WIREC 2008 preparations by the US State Department and discussions on the future role of REN21 in the international climate process.
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Also on the REN21 website:

• The Virtual Library continues to grow as a choice selection of publications and book reviews. Recently added: brand-new TERNA study “Energy-policy Framework Conditions for Electricity Markets and Renewable Energies – 23 Country Analyses”. Reader reviews on any of the library's documents and suggestions to include publications are most welcome and can be sent to the REN21 Secretariat for inclusion to the website.
  
• The REN21 International Policy page is updated to cover the recent UN and G8 events and their meaning for renewable energy.