29 November 2007 by REN21 Secretariat

The UN climate talks in Bali are expected to launch a roadmap for a global climate agreement post-2012.

Climate negotiators should be made aware that renewable energies (RE) offer a major opportunity to achieve carbon mitigation targets. Wind, hydro, geothermal, and the various technologies for delivering power, heat and transport from solar and biomass are readily available at large scale. Renewables offer a huge potential for a cost-effective reduction of CO2 and of dependence on fossil fuels, and can start the transition to a low-carbon economy today. In contrast, coal power with carbon-capture-and-storage will not be ready for widespread deployment for at least a decade, and nuclear power still carries high risks and high costs.

Both the 2007 REN21 Renewables Global Status Report and UNEP Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment Report show that renewable energy is attracting strong capital investment as the private sector recognises the sector as being healthy and robust with long-term growth prospects. This seems to have been lost on many governments and political decision makers, however, who still underestimate the potential and the competitiveness of renewables. This disconnect becomes evident over and over again in the climate discussions.

A REN21 analysis of the deployment potential of renewable energies until 2050 for the 20 largest economies concludes that renewables could realistically contribute simultaneously:

• at least half of all electricity generation in each of the large economies, in some countries like Australia, Brazil, Canada up to 90%;


• 40% - 80% of the heating and cooling supply (not including passive solar) in every country analysed;


• on average about 20% of the transport fuel supply (not including biofuel imports), with Brazil reaching almost 45%.

By achieving these potentials, those countries would make great strides towards shifting to a modern, sustainable energy system and a low-carbon economy. This, however, requires political leadership and the rapid implementation of effective policies. Governments must send market signals that are ‘loud, long and legal’ in order to boost investor confidence and to guarantee the industry long-term planning stability, a fair price for the power generated, and guaranteed access to distribution networks.

The commitments in the post-2012 climate regime must be so strong that such policies would be required for them to be met. To date, there have been only very few proposals in this direction, such as the recommendations brought forward by the Global Leadership for Climate Action (GLCA).

REN21 has analysed the elements of the international climate regime in terms of their relevance for renewable energy in the short and the long term.

Of critical importance for RE development is a long-term goal for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. The more ambitious and robust the long-term objectives, the more the climate will benefit and RE will be deployed. A 50% reduction of emissions below 1990 levels by 2050, a goal Canada, the EU, and Japan have decided to work towards (which the G8 promised to seriously consider), should be the minimum and would send long-term signals for the market development of renewable energy.

In addition to the long-term perspective, a common goal should be to break the trend of growing GHG emissions as soon as possible by setting near-term targets. The post-2012 regime resulting from the round of negotiations until 2009 should include such peak and decline of GHG emissions as an objective for 2020.

Support for renewables will depend on stringent commitments taken by as many countries as possible, particularly the major economies, all of whom should participate, if with differentiated obligations.

The post-2012 UN climate change regime should continue and expand the “Kyoto mechanisms” to encourage all countries to sign. The design of the new mechanisms will profit from the experience with JI and CDM under the Kyoto Protocol. The emission reduction targets for 2020 should become the effective “caps” and the flexibility mechanisms the “trade” tools. These mechanisms should deepen and widen carbon markets and help produce the needed financing instruments.

Only technologies that are truly low carbon should be eligible for a flexible mechanism scheme. Technologies that reduce GHG intensity marginally, but lock-in carbon intensity at a high level, should not benefit from CDM or JI successor instruments.

Finally, after many years of discussion, some scheme or facility for effective low-carbon technology cooperation should be created to encourage technology transfer.

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REN21 will be organising a press event to take place in Bali on Saturday 8 December.

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REN21 forums create dialogue to emphasise the importance of renewable energy and to generate discussion on how they can be promoted. While the forums benefit from the contributions of the REN21 community, the views expressed are those of the individual authors identified as the originators. They are not necessarily those of any of the other contributors, or any partner, sponsor or endorsing body of the REN21 Network.