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Renewable Energy and Global Energy Prospects
Expert views on long term energy
development are becoming increasingly demanded and are relevant far beyond energy
policy. The way renewables are presented in future scenarios - and especially in the most widely recognised ones
- has important political implications. Underestimated renewable energy scenarios may misguide policy makers
about how high the potential of renewables really is. This could
lead to a lack of political action - and ultimately turn the
erroneous scenario into reality through self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Centre for Resource Solutions carried out an
analysis of recently published energy scenarios for the IEA Implementing Agreement on
Renewable Energy Technology Deployment (RETD). This analysis tries to
explain why certain scenarios expect larger shares of renewable energy than others,
in order to recommend appropriate assumptions crucial to the role of renewable energy.
In an article for Annual Review of Environment and Resources 2007, Eric Martinot and others have reviewed
a large number of Renewable
Energy Futures: Targets, Scenarios, and Pathways.
Some scenarios, prospects and proposals with a strong impact on energy, environment and
development policies globally merit special treatment:
The International Energy
Agency (IEA) annually published the World Energy
Outlook (WEO) with a time horizon of 25 years, currently until 2030. The WEO is a forward-looking exercise based on assumptions on economic
development and energy prices, and provides two scenarios for
different policy assumptions. In 2006, the IEA also published Energy Technology Perspectives to 2050
(ETP), which explores
technological options. A new version of the ETP will be published
in 2008. The future role assigned to renewable energy
in the various scenarios is very different.
The World Energy Outlook 2007 is
- like its predecessors - an exercise to elaborate energy 'futures'
until 2030 from today's situation and perceptions. It is assumed that
world economic growth will be healthy in real terms and that world real GDP in 2030 is approximately 2.5 times the GDP of 2005. The oil
price is assumed to be rather stable in real terms around USD 60 per
barrel. In the Reference Scenario (RS), no significant new
policy initiatives are assumed, which leads to a 55% growth of world
primary energy demand. 84% of the increase is provided by fossil
fuels... and world energy related CO2 emissions
increase by 57% to 41.9 Giga tons. Compared to WEO 2006, most
numbers are somewhat higher, electricity generation by almost 5%.
Only traditional biomass consumption and nuclear power generation
have been reduced marginally; renewable energy outlook is 2-10%
higher. With respect to primary energy, the share of renewables
in the RS does not evolve from today's 13%. Higher use of new renewables
would merely compensate decreasing use of traditional renewable
energy fuels.
In the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS)
the IEA assumes policies to be implemented which are already under consideration in the national energy policy
pipelines. This would reduce primary energy demand in 2030 by 10.9% and
electricity generation by 11.7% . It would also cut (in comparison
to the reference case) fossil fuel consumption by 26% (coal) and
12-13% (oil and gas), and boost the input of renewables across the
board, as well as nuclear energy. In the APS, renewables attain a share of 17%
in primary energy. If instead of the IEA energy conversion
methodology the so-called partial substitution accounting
methodology was applied, renewables share would account for over 21%. In
the APS, the WEO predicts a share of renewable energy in electricity
generation of 29% by 2030, up from 18% in 2005. Renewables
overtake gas to become the second largest sources of electricity
after coal. Renewables account for 43% of incremental power
generation between 2005 and 2030. In transport, global biofuel
consumption increases from 19-164 Mtoe. This number is up
from 102 Mtoe in the RS.
Like in 2006, IEA again qualifies the projection of the Energy
Outlook as unsustainable. In an attempt to identify what
changes would be required to bring energy related CO2
emissions down to 23 Giga tons, the WEO 2007 brings a new
scenario, called the 450 Stabilization Case. The large
emission savings would come mainly from improved efficiency, the switch
in electricity generation to renewables (more than 40%), nuclear and
coal carbon-capture-and-sequestration (CCS), , and the doubling of biofuel use to 330 Mtoe, mainly expected
from lignicellulosic feedstock.
In the WEO 2006, IEA had offered a brief discussion of
"beyond alternative policies scenario" (BAS) which
would be necessary to reduce CO2 emissions. The results
of the 450 Stabilization Scenario are more specific than the
results of the 2006 BAS, and renewables' contribution is higher.
In an exercise requested by the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC), the UNFCCC Secretariat
carried out an analysis of existing and potential investment and financial flows for
climate change mitigation and adaptation. In the mitigation scenario,
built upon the Beyond Alternative Policy Scenario of IEA's WEO 2006, investment in renewable energy power generation in 2030 is higher than
in any other generation technology, including coal and its CCS.
In Energy Technology Perspectives
(ETP), the
IEA explores the possibilities to restructure energy demand and
supply in a way that the CO2 emissions return to their current level by
2050. The IEA finds that this is technologically and economically
feasible. While the IEA points to energy efficiency as a top priority, the role of renewables is considered significant. In
the ETPs TECH-plus Scenario, the share of renewables accounts for more than 35% of electricity generation
in 2050, up from 18% today. This can, according to IEA, only be implemented
in a stable policy environment that promotes low-carbon options.
In January 2007, Greenpeace, in cooperation with the European Wind Energy Council
(EREC) launched
energy (r)evolution, a global energy scenario to 2050. Designed as a practical blueprint, this backcasting exercise explores the possibility
to cover the growing energy demand without using nuclear energy or
CCS and yet reduce CO2 emissions by 50%
as required in order to limit climate change. The resulting scenario,
distinguishing 10 world regions, is considered feasible.
Much higher energy efficiency is the prerequisite for an energy supply structure
which is dominated by renewable energies. In addition to the global scenario, Greenpeace and EREC
also publish national and regional
scenarios.
In July 2007, Greenpeace and EREC delivered
futu(r)e investment, an estimate of
the investment requirements to implement their global energy scenario, maintaining that requirements
for this scenrio would be significantly lower than in the business as
usual fossil fuel and nuclear scenario.
In May 2007, WWF published its vision for 2050 Climate Solutions. It concludes that "the technologies and sustainable energy resources
known or available today are sufficient" to meet "the more than
doubling of global energy demand projected by 2050, while avoiding
dangerous climatic change of more than two degrees Celsius above
pre-industrial levels", and that "there is still sufficient time to build up
and deploy them, but only if the necessary decisions are made in the
next five years". A key part of the solution are low-emissions
technologies: "The rapid and parallel pursuit of the full range of
technologies, such as wind, hydro, solar PV & thermal, and bio-energy is
crucial, but within a set of environmental and social constraints to
ensure their sustainability. By 2050, these technologies could meet 70%
of the remaining demand after efficiencies have been applied, avoiding a
further 10.2Gt carbon emissions annually."
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has prepared its 4th Assessment Report
(4AR), and launched it step by step during 2007, after receiving final
comments from governments for each part. Among other objectives, the 4AR explores scenarios for keeping
green house gas (GHG) emissions stable in order to achieve the lowest possible
atmospheric
CO2 concentration
levels in the Working Group III. Its report Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change was published in May 2007.
It contains energy policy recommendations and highlights options to prevent some of the worst effects of climate
change. Renewable energy is considered a very important part of the
solution. Its share (including large hydro and biomass) in global
primary energy is projected to be between 8% and 17% possibly increasing
to above 61% in 2100. Renewables are expected to provide up to 35% of
electricity generated in 2030. Feed-in tariffs and renewable energy obligations are emphasised as
policy instruments that have proven effective.
The World Bank's
Clean Energy and Development: Towards an Investment Framework
(CEDIF) is also a forward-looking exercise, but takes a look at the
investments needs for a sustainable future.
The CEDIF distinguishes three critical pillars: Energy for development (in particular
energy access for the poor), the transition to a low-carbon economy, and adaptation
to climate change. Comparing the financial requirements and potential sources, it identifies a gap to financing the transition to a low-carbon economy. This CEDIF is currently being discussed with the
World Bank's member countries. In the CEDIF, renewable energy technologies are
seen as important options for the transition to a low-carbon economy, although the CEDIF seems to be more focused on high-efficient and low-carbon supply technology and power plant rehabilitation, as the continuous use of coal in large economies is the most
worrisome. Within the proposed strategies for energy development and access, some
renewable energy technologies, such as solar home systems, are given a specific role, and clean energy
is strongly recommended altogether. On the whole, the CEDIF is not particularly
aggressive in promoting renewable energy.
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