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ePaper created 2014-06-03, 15:03:20 | version 1.30.01
48 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS including plants in Japan and South Africa (Africa’s largest).47 The largest was a 320 MW PV plant in China, co-located with an existing 1.28 GW hydropower dam.48 The United States led for total capacity of facilities bigger than 50 MW, with a cumulative 1.4 GW in operation by year’s end, followed by Germany, China, India, and Ukraine.49 Many projects are planned and under development around the world that range from 50 MW to over 1,000 MW in scale.50 The share of commercial and utility-owned PV continued to increase in 2013, but the residential sector also saw strong capacity growth.51 Many utilities are pushing back against the expansion of distributed PV in several countries, due to concerns about a shrinking customer base and lost revenue. In Europe, for example, some utilities are blocking self-consumption by instituting fees, raising rates on customers with PV systems, or debating the future of net metering; in several U.S. states, debates are intensifying over net metering laws; in Australia, major utilities are acting to slow or halt the advance of solar PV.52 (See Sidebar 7.) Community-owned PV projects are emerging with a variety of models in an increasing number of countries, including Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Thailand, which has a community solar target under its national FIT.53 U.S. community solar gardens, which sell power to local utilities in exchange for monthly credits to investors, continued to spread in 2013, and some U.S. states have adopted community solar carve-outs in RPS laws.54 The concentrating PV (CPV) market remains small, but interest is increasing due greatly to higher efficiency levels in locations with high direct normal insolation and low moisture.55 CPV continued its spread to new markets in 2013, with sizable projects completed in Australia, Italy, and the United States, and small pilots under way in Chile, Namibia, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere.56 China commissioned the world largest plant (50 MW) during 2013.57 By year’s end, more than 165 MW was operating in more than 20 countries, led by China and the United States.58 Solar PV is starting to play a substantial role in electricity generation in some countries, meeting an estimated 7.8% of annual electricity demand in Italy, nearly 6% in Greece, 5% in Germany, and much higher daily peaks in many countries.59 By year’s end, the EU had enough solar PV capacity to meet an estimated 3% of total consumption (up from 0.3% in 2008) and 6% of peak demand; global capacity in operation was enough to produce at least 160 TWh of electricity per year.60 ■■ SOLAR PV INDUSTRY Following a two-year slump, in which oversupply drove down module prices and many manufacturers reported negative gross margins, the solar PV industry began to recover during 2013.61 It was still a challenging year, particularly in Europe, where shrinking markets left installers, distributors, and others struggling to stay afloat.62 Consolidation continued among manufacturers, but, by late in the year, the strongest companies were selling panels above cost.63 The rebound did not apply lower down the manufacturing chain, however, particularly for polysilicon makers.64 Low module prices also continued to challenge many thin film companies and the concentrating solar industries, which have struggled to compete.65 International trade disputes also continued through 2013.66 Module prices stabilised, with crystalline silicon module spot prices up about 5% during 2013, in response to robust demand growthinChina,Japan,andtheUnitedStatesinthesecondhalfof the year.67 At the same time, module production costs continued to fall. Low material costs (particularly for polysilicon) combined with improved manufacturing processes and scale economies have reduced manufacturing costs, and far faster than targeted by the industry, with top Chinese producers approaching costs of USD 0.50/W in 2013.68 Interest has turned to lowering soft costs to further reduce installed system costs, which have also declined but not as rapidly as module prices (particularly in Japan and the United States).69 Although investment in solar PV (in dollar terms) was down for the year, actual installed capacity was up significantly, with the difference explained by declining costs of solar PV systems in recent years.ii 70 (See Figure 14.) As of 2013, the cost per MWh of rooftop solar was below retail electricity prices in several countries, including Australia, Brazil, Denmark, Germany, and Italy.71 By one estimate, solar PV is deemed to be competitive without subsidies in at least 19 markets (in 15 countries).72 Further, several projects that were planned or under development by year’s end were considered to be competitiveiii with fossil options, without subsidies.73 An estimated 43 GW of crystalline silicon cells and 47 GW of modules were produced in 2013, up 20% from 2012, and module production capacity reached an estimated 67.6 GW.74 Thin film production rose nearly 21% in 2013, to 4.9 GW, and its share of total global PV production stayed flat year-over-year.75 Over the past decade, module production has shifted from the United States, to Japan, to Europe, and back to Asia, with China dominating shipments since 2009.76 By 2013, Asia accounted for 87% of global production (up from 85% in 2012), with China producing 67% of the world total (almost two-thirds in 2012).77 Europe’s share continued to fall, to 9% in 2013 (11% in 2012), and Japan’s share remained at 5%.78 The U.S. share was 2.6%; thin film accounted for 39% of U.S. production, up from 36% in 2012.79 In India, most manufacturing capacity was idle or operating at low utilisation rates, primarily because it was uncompetitive due to lack of scale, low-cost financing, and underdeveloped supply chains.80 i - It is telling of the rapid changes in PV markets that the 2011 edition of the GSR reported on utility-scale projects >200 kW in size, the 2012 edition on projects >20 MW, and the 2013 edition on projects >30 MW. ii - Note that data in Figure 14 come from different sources, so they are not perfectly aligned. The investment data reflect the timing of investment decisions, not the amount of capacity installed. So, for example, some dollars invested during calendar year 2012 may have been for systems installed during 2013. iii - The source for this information does not define “competitive.” However, the IEA-PVPS defines possible competitiveness as the situation in which PV produces electricity more cheaply than other sources could have delivered electricity at the same time, per IEA-PVPS, Trends 2013 in Photovoltaic Applications: Survey Report of Selected IEA Countries Between 1992 and 2012 (Brussels: 2013), p. 65.