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Global Futures Report 2013 - Table 4

53 With the explosive growth of renewable energy markets over the past decade have come dramatic technology improvements and cost reductions. These growth rates reflect a “take-off” phase that has seen many renewable energy technologies become mainstream investments and undergo dramatic advances in performance, cost, and scale.1 (For details on the status of all technologies and markets, see annual editions of the REN21 Renewables Global Status Report. For more on cost comparisons between renewables and other energy technologies, see “Great Debate 1” on page 12. For policies underlying market growth, see “Great Debate 2” on page 13, and Chapter 5. For more on technology integration, see Chapter 2.) In power generation, global wind power capacity grew by 20% in 2011 (to 238 GW), after growing by an annual average of 26% over the five-year period 2006–2011. Solar PV capacity grew by a record 74% in 2011 (to 70 GW), after growing by an average of 58% over the five-year period. Solar thermal power (CSP) grew by 35% in 2011. In contrast, hydropower, biomass, and geothermal power have been mature for decades, and five-year growth rates for these renewables were more on par with conventional energy techno- logies. In terms of total power generation capacity, renewable energy reached 1,360 GW in 2011, including 970 GW of hydropower. This meant that global renewable capacity represented about one- quarter of total global power capacity.2 Growing markets for hot water and space heating that incorporate biomass, solar thermal, and geothermal have also contributed to technology evolution and cost reduction.a Biomass remains the primary form of heat supply from renewables, and provides about one tenth of global energy supply, two-thirds of which is “tradi- tional” biomass use (see footnote on page 15). Another 10% of the biomass resource is used for electricity generation and combined heat and power (CHP). Most biomass is consumed locally, but international trade in wood pellets has grown since the mid-1990s. Markets for solar thermal collectors (for hot water and heating) have been growing rapidly in recent years, and solar now provides almost as much heating capacity as modern biomass. Solar heat- ing capacity grew by 27% in 2011, following 17% annual average growth over the five-year period 2006–2011. Geothermal heating capacity is roughly one-fifth that of biomass heating capacity and also growing.3 Transport fuels from renewables are primarily ethanol and biodiesel produced from a variety of biomass crops. Production of these two fuels together reached 107 billion liters in 2011, about 3% of total global road transport fuel consumption. Ethanol fuel produc- tion grew by an annual average of 17% over the five-year period 2006–2011, although growth was stagnant in 2011, and biodiesel grew by an annual average of 27% over the five years.4 Expert interviews and scenarios offer projections of continued dramatic global market growth in the coming decades, coupled with continuing technology improvements and cost reductions. These projections are explored in this chapter. Most common are projections for global power capacity, as shown in Table 4 from five scenarios to 2030. In these scenarios, wind power capacity increases between 4-fold and 12-fold by 2030, solar PV between 7-fold and 25-fold, CSP between 20-fold and 350-fold, biomass power between 3-fold and 5-fold (with one exception), geothermal between 4-fold and 15-fold, and hydro between 30% and 80%.5 The following sections explore projections for the evolution of markets, technologies, and costs for individual technologies. These include future cost projections by experts and scenarios. In general, scenarios and experts expect costs to decline for a host of reasons, such as increased market volumes that accelerate technology development, economies of scale in manufacturing, and materials advances.6, b Table 4: Global Renewable Power Capacity by 2030 in Recent Scenarios Sources: See Annex 2. Actual 2006 and 2011 from REN21 (2008, 2012). Notes: CSP stands for solar thermal power. Figures for 2030 are rounded to nearest 10 GW or 50 GW from original sources. Hydropower figure for 2011 excludes pure pumped hydro capacity; a comparable figure for 2006 is not available, see REN21 (2012), notes to Table R2, and note on hydropower on page 168. Hydro Wind Solar PV CSP Biomass Geothermal Ocean GW Actual 2006 Capacity for Comparison – 74 8 0.4 45 9.5 0.3 Actual 2011 Capacity for Comparison 970 238 70 1.8 72 11 0.5 IEA WEO (2012) “New Policies” 1,580 920 490 40 210 40 10 IEA WEO (2012) “450” 1,740 1,340 720 110 260 50 10 IEA ETP (2012) “2DS” 1,640 1,400 700 140 340 50 20 BNEF GREMO (2011) — 1,350 1,200 260 30 — IEA RETD (2010) “ACES” 1,300 2,700 1,000 120 340 — — Greenpeace (2012) 1,350 2,900 1,750 700 60 170 180 a) Markets for cooling from renewables are much less developed than for heating, but are also growing; see annual editions of the REN21 Renewables Global Status Report. For more on both heating and cooling technologies, see buildings integration on page 26 and urban infrastructure integration on page 39. b) Some experts questioned the sustainability of high levels of “manufactured” renewables like wind and solar PV in the very long term, in terms of material resources, rare earths, recycling, and toxic wastes. See Endnote 6. 06

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