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Global Futures Report 2013

List of Tables Table 1: Sectoral Shares of Renewable Energy in Recent Global Scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Table 2: Electricity Shares of Renewable Energy in Recent National and Regional Scenarios. . . . . . . . . . 20 Table 3: U.S. Renewable Power Capacity by 2030–2035 and 2050 in Recent Scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Table 4: Global Renewable Power Capacity by 2030 in Recent Scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 List of Figures Figure 1: Conservative, Moderate, and High-Renewables Scenarios to 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 2: National and EU Electricity Shares from Renewables, 2010–2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Figure 3: Global Share of Transport Fuel to 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Figure 4: Buildings: Integration Opportunities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Figure 5: Annual Investment Flows to Renewable Energy in Scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 List of Boxes Box 1: Detractors of Renewable Energy and Future Outlooks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Box 2: Renewable Energy in Global Energy and Climate Scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Box 3: UN “Sustainable Energy for All”: Doubling the Global Renewables Share. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Box 4: Hybrid Fossil Fuel/Renewable Power Plants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Box 5: Utility Business Models for Solar PV. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Box 6: Emerging “Smart Cities” Paradigms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Box 7: State-Provincial Markets and Policies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Box 8: Brazil and South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Box 9: Solar PV for Rural (Off-Grid) Areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Great Debates (see also Annex 4) Great Debate 1: Is Renewable Energy More Expensive Than Conventional Energy?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Great Debate 2: What Is the Future Role of Policy?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Great Debate 3: Is Energy Storage Necessary for High Levels of Renewables?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Great Debate 4: Is the Concept of “Base Load” Meaningful for Future Energy Systems?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Great Debate 5: Centralized or Decentralized Power Grids?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Great Debate 6: Will Utilities Lead, Follow, Push Back, or Perish?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Great Debate 7: What Roles Will Oil and Gas Companies Play?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Great Debate 8: Will Green Power Purchasing Scale Up Like Organic Food Has?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Great Debate 9: How Will Feed-in Tariffs Evolve?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Great Debate 10: What Is the Future of Coal Power in India Relative to Renewables?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Great Debate 11: What Are the Pros and Cons of Offshore Wind Power?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Great Debate 12: How Sustainable Can Biofuels Become in the Long Term?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 5

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