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Global Futures Report 2013 - Developing Countries (Other Than China and India)

49 Great Debate 10 | What Is the Future of Coal Power in India Relative to Renewables? Experts believed that a key choice facing India will be whether to increase imported coal for power generation (given that domestic production will not increase), or to turn increasingly to renewable energy for the majority of new power investment. Some experts said that this question depends heavily on the availability and price of imported coal, and on future expectations about availability and price. One expert, however, noted in late 2012, “I thought this was already pretty much decided with the shelving of plans for 42 GW of coal capacity since early 2012 and Tata's announcement that it will build only renewables, not coal plants, because there's no business case for new coal plants.” Some experts underlined, however, the expected growth of GDP and population, along with present-day chronic power shortages, to say that India faces huge needs for more power, and that coal was still a viable option. If, as one projection shows, India’s GDP will quadruple by 2030, then total power capacity would have to expand between 3-fold and 5-fold by 2030, according to one expert. In this scenario, renewables additions would have to exceed 100 GW through 2030 just for the renewables share of electricity to remain constant, as 400–700 GW of new capacity would be added by 2030, the expert said. Some experts believed that up to three-quarters of new power capacity added between now and 2030 will be renewable, if high prices of imported coal make wind and solar competitive with new coal power. This could mean an added 300–500 GW of renewable power capacity by 2030. Greenpeace (2012) shows total power capacity increasing by more than 500 GW by 2030, with virtually all of those additions from renewables. Total coal power capacity peaks in the 2015–2020 time frame at 130 GW (up from 100 GW in 2009), and then declines to 100 GW in 2030 and 15 GW in 2050. By 2050, this scenario projects that over 90% of electricity, heating, and cooling will come from renewables, along with about 60% of transport fuels. Notes and discussion: See Annex 4. 05 Experts believed that this expansion will accelerate through 2020 in leading countries such as Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Ghana, Indonesia, Jordan, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, the Philippines, South Africa, and Thailand. And beyond 2020, renewables markets will become even broader-based in a larger number of countries, as developing countries take increasing leadership. The annual REN21 Renewables Global Status Report documents annual progress and deepening engagement in developing countries, for renewable energy policies, markets, and investments.36 (See also Box 8.) In recent years, developing countries have continued to enact a variety of policy targets for future shares and amounts of renew- able energy. These targets underscore the emerging leadership in many countries for renewable energy futures, and foreshadow future markets. For example, countries targeting wind power by 2020, 2025, or 2030 include Argentina (1.2 GW), Brazil (16 GW), Egypt (7.2 GW), Jordan (1 GW), the Philippines (2.4 GW), South Africa (9.2 GW), and Thailand (1.2 GW). Examples for geothermal targets include Kenya (5 GW), the Philippines (3.5 GW), and Indonesia (13 GW). Examples for biomass power targets include Brazil (13 GW), Nigeria (30 MW), and Thailand (3.6 GW). Examples for hydro targets include Brazil (117 GW by 2021, from 84 GW in 2011) and Ethiopia (22 GW by 2030).37 Some countries have total renewable capacity targets, such as the Philippines (triple 2010 capacity by 2030) and Tunisia (40% of total power capacity by 2030). And at least 35 developing countries have policy targets for shares of electricity from renewables by either 2020 or 2030.38 (See Chapter 1 for sector-share targets, and annual editions of the REN21 Renewables Global Status Report and associ- ated online interactive map for complete targets database.) Several countries target rural (off-grid) renewable energy—for example, Bangladesh (150,000 biogas digesters by 2016 and 2.5 million solar PV systems by 2015), Benin (50% of rural electricity by 2025), Colombia (30% of rural energy capacity by 2030), Lesotho (35% of rural electricity by 2020), Micronesia (50% of rural elec- tricity), and Uganda (100,000 biogas digesters by 2017). And a few countries target solar heating/hot water units or capacity, including Jordan (30% of households by 2020), Morocco (1.2 GWth by 2020), and Mozambique (100,000 units).39 Experts in developing countries repeatedly stressed several common issues that they believed will shape (or limit) renewables develop- ment in the future. The most commonly cited were: the availability of credit, technical know-how, and renewable resource data; the drive for local manufacturing and “local content” requirements; public education and information; development of long-term energy planning capacity and tools; and the imperatives of power capacity shortages. Others complained that already-enacted policies are not being implemented, that institutional responsibilities for forging new power market rules and roles is unclear, that short-term problems are crowding out long-term thinking, that conventional energy industries are mounting resistance to renewables, and that evaluation criteria in competitive bidding programs for new generation resources are unfair to renewables. Many pointed to security of energy supply as a growing motivation that would shape renewables markets.40 Beyond these issues, experts outlined several areas of opportu- nity and expected market trends: n Electric power infrastructure. Developing countries will need to build “lots of infrastructure” in the next 10 years, noted many experts. However, paths for infrastructure development may not follow traditional models, noted experts, who foresaw expand- ing markets uniquely tied to the lack of full rural electrification and weak centralized power grids in many countries. These paths include many “off-grid” options, continuing investment in hydro and geothermal power, and micro-grids instead of new centralized grids. Experts also noted that high shares of hydropower in many countries, as well as future opportunities for pumped hydro, provide opportunities for balancing variable renewables.41 (See also utility grid integration in Chapter 2, “Great Debate 5” on page 27, and more on rural renewable energy at the end of this section.)

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