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Global Futures Report 2013 - India

48 markets would “catch up” with other parts of the world by 2015– 2020. One expert believed that 100 GW might be reached in 2020, but others thought that level might take until 2030. In the longer term, several experts did foresee 500–1,000 GW. One believed that 1,000 GW could ultimately reflect just distributed rooftops alone, with many utility-scale plants in addition. And one believed that solar energy in all forms could become a majority of energy supply in China by 2050. Scenarios show 200–250 GW for 2030–2035 (BNEF; IEA WEO; and Greenpeace, 2012), and 300–800 GW for 2050 (China ERI; Greenpeace).24 Expert views on biomass varied based on views of resource avail- ability, use of biomass for competing purposes, biomass costs rela- tive to other renewables, and whether large-scale power plants (up to 25 MW) are viable in large numbers given the geographically (and institutionally) diffuse nature of agricultural wastes. In 2011, China had 4 GW of biomass power and a policy target of 30 GW by 2020. Some experts believed that capacity might not exceed 30 GW in the long term. China ERI (2011) shows biomass power leveling off at 40 GW before 2050. Some experts believed that beyond 2025, biomass would be used mainly for cellulosic ethanol. Others saw biomass used primarily for household heating and cooling, for producing bio-methane, as feedstocks to chemical industries, and gasified on small scales for use with smaller gas engines.25 In 2011, China produced 2.3 billion liters of biofuels, mostly ethanol. Policy targets of 10 million tonnes of ethanol (12.6 billion liters) and 2 million tonnes of biodiesel (2.3 billion liters) exist for 2020. Many Chinese experts saw liquid biofuels becoming a major use of bio- mass in the future, starting in 2020–2025. They said wastes, crops, and jatropha all have big potential. “Biomass will be used for liquid fuels and chemical process inputs, but not very much for power generation,” they said. But some saw limited potential for biofuels because of future industrial use of biomass resources.26 Finally, many Chinese experts were optimistic about the use of solar thermal for hot water, space heating, and industrial process heat. In 2010, China had 170 million square meters (m2 ) of solar heating and a policy target of 300 million m2 by 2020. One solar industry executive projected 600 million m2 by 2030. The utilization of solar thermal could peak as quickly as 2030, another expert said, provid- ing water heating in 30–50% of buildings, some space heating, and industrial process heat in low-land-density settings. Other experts thought that solar thermal for industrial process and water heat- ing could start to take off before 2015. “Industrial applications will become very important,” one said.27 India Renewable energy policy in India continues to be a mixture of national-level and state-level initiatives. Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) regulations and feed-in tariff policies have existed at the state level for many years, and continue to be updated regularly. At the national level in recent years, India has adopted a feed-in tariff, instituted tradable renewable energy certificates (RECs), established a green-building rating system, and enacted a national energy conservation code for buildings that incorporates renewables.28 Other state-level policies continue to be adopted, such as solar PV support schemes, interest-free loans, electricity sales-duty exemp- tions, guaranteed grid access, and transmission wheeling policies, in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu. As one expert noted, “the role being played by state governments in supporting renewables is often in support of their industrial development aspirations.” This expert also noted that the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission for developing solar PV and solar thermal power (CSP) markets, which started in 2010 at the national level, subsequently spawned initiatives from several state governments that together match or exceed the federal effort.29 Wind power could be a major share of added power capacity through 2020 and beyond, said experts. In 2010, India ranked 5th in the world in wind power capacity, at over 13 GW. There is no national target for wind power, but one expert foresaw 90 GW by 2022 if a national electricity plan is met. Two scenarios show 90–100 GW by 2020 and 185–190 GW by 2030 (GWEC, 2012; Greenpeace, 2012). Risø (2010) shows 200 GW by 2050. Wind power in the future could be limited by transmission constraints, and overcoming this bottle- neck will be a key part of future infrastructure development, as well as addressing variability through smart grids, energy storage, and getting major utility buy-in of renewables, experts said.30 Use of grid-tied solar PV is still small in India, about 1 GW in 2012. But the national solar target enacted in 2010 for 20 GW of grid- connected solar by 2022 (both PV and CSP) would start to acceler- ate development in coming years, said Indian experts. And some states have their own solar PV targets: for example, Chhattisgarh targets up to 1 GW by 2017.31 Most experts believed India would meet or exceed the 2022 solar target. Once (retail) grid parity is reached around 2015–2017, they said, markets would accelerate, although widespread net metering would be required, they said (see also solar PV in Chapter 6). One solar expert foresaw many more utility-scale solar PV plants prolifer- ating at scales of 1–50 MW, in addition to rooftop applications. The expert also said that thin-film PV markets could be larger in India than elsewhere due to India’s high-temperature conditions. Solar thermal and CSP could also become important for renewable-assisted air conditioning and industrial process heat, especially in meeting India’s policy target of 14 GWth of solar thermal capacity by 2022.32 Hydropower currently provides the majority of renewable elec- tricity in India and will continue to grow, according to scenarios like Greenpeace (2012), which shows hydro capacity peaking by 2030, with 25 GW added by then.33 The use of biomass, biogas, small wind power, small hydro, and solar PV for rural “off-grid” energy will continue to be important because India will not achieve full electrification in the coming decades, said experts. So the “access” question for rural households will remain relevant in the long term. Among India’s policy targets is the goal of 20 million rural lighting systems by 2022.34 (See more discussion of rural renewable energy in the following section on developing countries.) Developing Countries (Other Than China and India) Through interviews, workshops, scenarios, and published articles, many perspectives on developing countries were collected from knowledgeable experts: managers, researchers, officials, and development experts. Virtually all experts expressed the view that markets will expand into a much greater number of developing countries on a vastly greater scale. This will create a much more diverse geographic base, beyond developing country leaders Brazil, China, and India.35 RENEWABLES GLOBAL FUTURES REPORT 05 Futures at the National and EU Levels

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