Please activate JavaScript!
Please install Adobe Flash Player, click here for download

Global Futures Report 2013 - China

47 Box 7 | State-Provincial Markets and Policies State-provincial level markets and policies have been a sig- nificant feature of renewables’ historical evolution, and many national experts pointed to leadership at the state-provincial level as a continuing driver in the future. Support policies, policy targets, utility regulation, and many other forms of local mar- ket support can be seen in U.S. states, in Canadian provinces, in Japan’s prefectures, in Australian states, in Indian states, and in Chinese provinces. In many other countries, sub-national poli- cies for renewables are a part of the national policy landscape. In Canada, several provinces have policy targets or renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policies, and five provinces have capac- ity targets for wind power before 2020, ranging from 0.5 to 7 GW each, including Alberta, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Ontario, and Quebec. In Japan, at least two prefectures, Fukushima and Nagano, target 100% renewable energy in the long term, as a consequence of the Fukushima disaster, and other prefectures, such as Kanagawa, are active with policy. The roles of states in the United States and India are mentioned elsewhere in this chapter. Biofuels blending mandates exist at the state-provincial level in at least 26 jurisdictions around the world. Several feed-in tariff policies exist, such as in the Australian Capital Territory and Nova Scotia (Canada), and others have policy targets for electricity share, as noted in Chapter 1, including Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates), Scotland (U.K.), South Australia, and Upper Austria. (See also Chapter 4 on local/city policies.) Source: See Endnote 18 for this chapter. were particularly optimistic about the future of solar PV, geother- mal, and offshore (including floating) wind power. These experts acknowledged, however, many practical and policy difficulties facing investors and developers in the future. These include per- mission for geothermal drilling in national parks, land-use issues in high-wind coastal areas, transmission interconnections for onshore wind power, and offshore wind turbine interference with fishing and shipping.15 One Japanese solar PV industry executive projected that solar PV capacity could reach 100 GW in Japan by 2030, for an annual aver- age market of 5 GW per year. He also believed that Japan could attain a 50% share of residential electricity use from solar PV by 2030, and that half of Japan’s solar PV would be installed on residential rooftops, one-quarter on commercial rooftops, and one- quarter in utility-scale “mega” plants. (For comparison, Japan had 5 GW of solar PV capacity existing in 2011, with an annual market of 1.3 GW in 2011.) An older NEDO (2009) “PV Roadmap” projected an annual solar PV market of 6–12 GW by 2030. Greenpeace (2011) shows 100 GW existing by 2030.16 For wind power, industry experts projected 20–50 GW by 2030– 2050. (For comparison, Japan had 2.5 GW of wind capacity in 2011.) Wind power capacity in scenario projections for 2050 range from 50 GW (Japan Wind Power Association, 2010) to 70 GW (Greenpeace, 2011). An older NEDO (2009) “White Paper” projected only 7 GW of wind power by 2030.17 China In 2010, China became the global leader in renewable energy, in terms of annual investment, taking that title from Germany, which had held it for several years. Scenarios and expert opinion suggest that China will remain the global leader in the coming decades. A number of new renewable energy policies have been enacted since 2005, including feed-in tariffs, quotas for electric utilities, biomass power development programs, and solar PV support policies in some provinces. Most Chinese experts interviewed in 2011 seemed to take China’s future leadership almost for granted, as if there was no turning back.19 Of all technologies, Chinese expert projections for hydropower were the most certain. In 2011, China had 212 GW of hydropower, including about 18 GW of pumped hydro. Experts consistently cited 400 GW as the ultimate level, and believed hydro would grow to 300–350 GW by 2020, consistent with an existing policy target of 300 GW for 2020. They believed that hydro would then reach 400 GW before 2030. In line with these, BNEF (2011) shows 400 GW by 2030. Beyond 2030, scenarios show a leveling off, with projec- tions for 2050 in the range of 380–430 GW (LBNL, 2011; Zhang et al., 2010; China ERI, 2009). The ERI projection includes 60 GW of pumped hydro by 2050. Plans announced by State Grid in 2010 call for 21 GW of pumped hydro by 2015 and 41 GW by 2020.20 Projections for wind power were wider-ranging than hydro but still fairly consistent. In 2011, China had 62 GW of wind power, the highest of any single country. China’s wind power target increased step-wise over several years, and by 2012, stood at 200 GW by 2020. All industry experts interviewed in 2011 believed wind power capacity would reach 150–200 GW by 2020. China added 18 GW of a) China’s domestic market should not be confused with solar PV production for export. Prior to 2011, China had become a leading global manufacturer of solar PV, but virtually all production was exported. 05 new capacity in 2011, and most experts saw continued 15–20 GW annual markets through 2020.21 Beyond 2020, some Chinese experts saw annual wind power mar- kets increasing to 25–30 GW between 2020 and 2030, particularly if wind power becomes competitive with coal after 2020, they said. Their estimates for 2030 capacity ranged from 300 to 400 GW. After 2030, some believed markets might begin to saturate, and annual volume could decline to 5–10 GW. Estimates for 2050 ranged from 400 to 600 GW. Published scenarios are in line with these estimates and show 330–350 GW by 2030–2035 (IEA WEO, 2012; BNEF, 2011), and 400–500 GW by 2050 (China ERI; LBNL).22 Solar PV market projections were the most uncertain, reflecting much more nascent domestic markets and uncertain policy condi- tions. In 2011, China had 3 GW of total solar PV capacity, but most of that (2 GW) was added in 2011 alone, pointing to rapid market change during 2011–2012.a China’s first policy target for solar PV was 1.8 GW by 2020, enacted in 2007. That target was later increased to 5 GW and then 20 GW. In 2012, China announced that the target would be 50 GW by 2020.23 In 2011 and 2012, new solar PV promotion policies, as well as much lower costs, started to influence domestic markets. Many Chinese experts, interviewed in 2011, believed that domestic solar PV

Pages Overview