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Global Futures Report 2013 - Table of Contents

4 Table of contents Acknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Preface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 01 How Much Renewables?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 (Total Energy Shares, Electricity Shares, Heating/Cooling Shares, and Transport Shares) 02 Integrated Futures: Challenges and Possibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 (Utility Power Grids, Buildings, Industry, and Transport) 03 Investment Futures: Flows, Investors, and Business Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 (Amounts and Sources of Investment and Business Model Possibilities) 04 Futures at the Local/City Level: Initiative, Planning and Policy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 (Urban Planning and Built-Infrastructure, Urban Mobility, and 100% Renewable Communities) 05 Futures at the National and EU Levels: Market Growth and Policy Support. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 (Europe, United States, Japan, China, India, and Other Developing Countries) 06 Evolution of Technologies, Costs, and Global Market Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 (Wind, Solar PV, Solar Thermal Power (CSP), Biomass, Hydro, Geothermal, Ocean, and Biofuels) Conclusion: Transformational Change?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Epilogue: Speaking Personally (Views of the Author). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Annex 1: List of Interviews. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Annex 2: List of Scenarios Covered . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Annex 3: Scenarios, Models, and Variables Influencing Renewable Energy Futures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Annex 4: Great Debates and Topical Discussion Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 REN21 Steering Committee 2013. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 * Glossary and Basic Energy Concepts * Endnotes * Bibliography and Topical Readings * Topical Discussion Report * Scenario Profiles Report (*) These items are available online at http://www.ren21.net/gfr Suggested Citation: REN21. 2013. Renewables Global Futures Report (Paris: REN21). Copyright © 2013 REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century and Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies. All rights reserved. 04 05 01 02 03 06

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