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Global Futures Report 2013

31 Greenpeace (2012) scenario, which also shows electricity provid- ing 44% of transport energy by 2050. This shift is accompanied by reductions in transport energy demand (60% less compared to the reference case), through shifts to smaller vehicles, reductions in distances traveled, shifts from road to rail, changes in behav- ior, and greater use of public transit. The GEA (2012) “Advanced Transportation” cases project some combination of electricity and hydrogen fuels delivering 20–60% of transport energy by 2050, depending on levels of overall transport demand by then.58 Automakers also offer many future visions. Almost all of the top-25 global automakers are developing plug-in hybrids and/or electric vehicles, and many appeared set to bring them to market in 2013–2014, following early leaders such as Mitsubishi, Nissan, BYD, Kia, and GM, which already introduced commercial products in 2009–2012. Mitsubishi envisions that 15–20% of its annual vehicle sales by 2020 will be electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (following the commercial introduction of its iMiEV electric car in 2009).59 Automakers see the growth of electric vehicles tied to the develop- ment of local vehicle charging infrastructure. (See Chapter 4.) For example, Mitsubishi notes that worldwide sales of its iMiEV are doing best in Norway, where public parking facilities have been adapted to re-charge electric vehicles. BMW projects that 5–15% of its new vehicle sales will be fully or partially electric by 2020. Daimler and BMW both are also developing hydrogen fuel-cell vehi- cles, and part of their vision is the production of hydrogen vehicle fuels from renewables. Audi is developing natural gas vehicles, and part of its vision is the production of synthetic natural gas from renewables. Tata is developing an ultra-light fiberglass compressed- air car charged by electricity with a range of 300 kilometers. Many automakers are also introducing flex-fuel vehicles that run on high- share blends of biofuels.60 Visionaries thinking in the long term pointed to the integration of transport with electric power and renewables as a future “game changer.” Such views, dating back to the 1990s, are gaining more widespread acceptance, they said. These experts envisioned millions of grid-connected electric vehicles providing grid balancing for vari- able renewables and controlled through smart grids—the so-called “vehicle-to-grid” (V2G) concept. Some named this aggregation of potentially millions of vehicles a “virtual power plant” that could be controlled by a utility subject to vehicle-owner-set parameters through “smart grid” technology. Automakers themselves have increasingly recognized this potential, and several now incorporate the notion of V2G into their own future visions, including Mitsubishi and Toyota.61 As part of the V2G paradigm, experts also pointed to electric vehi- cles integrated with near-zero-energy building technologies, micro- grids, and solar PV, in which the electric vehicle becomes part of the building’s energy system and can supply power to the building (i.e., homes and offices) when parked. This has been called the “double use” concept. “It needs systems thinking,” said one energy storage expert, referring to the need for automakers, equipment vendors, architects, and building developers to work together.62 Some auto companies seem to be pursuing this vision: for exam- ple, Toyota has introduced its “Smart Center” concept for homes that integrates home energy management, electric vehicles, local renewables, energy storage, and smart-grid control into a single system. In this concept, electric vehicle batteries would be “used as a household power source in emergencies,” said Toyota, which implies less than full V2G integration. However, in 2012, Toyota also announced actual testing in Japan of “vehicle-to-home” systems (V2H) that allow routine power-sharing between home and vehicle. Nissan has a similar program for “smart houses” and development of local energy storage solutions.63 Beyond road transport, many scenarios show a transition to greater use of electric rail transport for freight in particular, and also for passengers. For shipping and aviation, experts believed that these transport modes would be much more difficult to integrate with renewables, and would require the longest time frame. Several airlines have demonstrated biofuel use in aircraft test flights in recent years, but experts noted that alternative aviation fuels are not available in sufficient quantities for use beyond small shares. Some scenarios ponder a major role for hydrogen in both shipping and aviation in the long term, but few model such by 2050. Most scenarios show some role for biofuels in shipping and aviation by 2050, but typically much less than for road transport. The IEA (2009) found that projections for biofuels in aviation ranged from a few percent to 30% by 2050.64 02

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