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Global Futures Report 2013 - Figure 3

21 Globally, the IEA WEO (2012) “New Policies” scenario projects that heat from modern renewables almost doubles from 2010 to 2035. The IEA says: “production of heat from modern renewables continues to be dominated by bioenergy throughout the projection period … This heat is used mainly by industry (where biomass is used to produce steam, in co-generation and in steel production) but also by households (primarily for space and water heating).” The IEA projects that, by 2035, bioenergy use for heating grows by more than 60%, geothermal heat increases 6-fold, and solar heating increases more than 3-fold. Greenpeace (2012) shows a 50% share of global heating from renewables by 2030 and a 90% share by 2050. Greenpeace projects that through 2020, biomass will represent a large share of renewables heating growth, while beyond 2020, the continued growth of solar collectors, and growing shares of geothermal heating and heat pumps, will occur.29 n Transport Shares About 107 billion liters of biofuels were produced globally in 2011, representing about 3% of global road transport fuel demand. A handful of national and regional policy targets exist for future transport shares from renewables. An EU-wide target of 10% by 2020 includes both sustainable biofuels and electric vehicles. A few individual EU member countries also have their own transport fuel targets for 2020. Most notable is Sweden, which targets a complete phase-out of fossil fuels in transport by 2030. The United States has a Renewable Fuels Standard, which requires 36 billion gallons (135 billion liters) of biofuels to be blended annually with other trans- port fuels by 2022. In addition, in 2011, at least 24 countries and 26 states/provinces around the world had mandates for blending biofuels in gasoline and/or diesel, typically at 5–10% blends, with some biodiesel blends up to 20%.30 Virtually all scenarios project an increase in biofuels, but most pro- jections are quite modest relative to the large gains in electricity shares in the same scenarios. (See Figure 3.) The IEA WEO (2012) “New Policies” and “450” scenarios are an exception, and project that biofuels grow by a factor of 3–6 between 2010 and 2035, which would mean consumption of roughly 350–700 billion liters of biofuels in 2035. This represents a 6–14% share of transport energy by 2035. The IEA sees the increases driven by advanced biofuels in the longer term (which the IEA assumes will become commercially available by 2020, although not yet competitive with conventional fuels). More conservatively, BP (2012) projects a 7% share by 2030.31 (See also biofuels in Chapter 6.a ) For 2050, IEA RETD (2010) projects that advanced biofuels make up one-third of global transport fuel by 2050. The GEA (2012) “Supply” case shows about 20% of energy from biofuels, and the “Efficiency” case shows about 16% from biofuels plus 21% from electricity, for a 37% total share. WWF (2011) projects that the transport sector will become 100% powered from renewables by 2050, including a combination of electricity, biofuels, and hydrogen. For Europe alone, EREC (2010) projects over 80% by 2050, from high shares of both renewable electricity and biofuels. SEI (2009) also projects a transi- tion to electric vehicles, such that virtually all passenger vehicles are electric in Europe by 2050, along with half of all freight vehicles.32 (See also transport integration in Chapter 2.) Industry expert opinions on the future of liquid biofuels for trans- portation were wide-ranging. Some thought that as much as half of all transportation fuel by 2050 could come from biofuels, while others projected much less.33 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Percent Greenpeace (2012) IEA RETD (2010) "ACES" BP (2012) IEA WEO (2012) "450" 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 3: Global Share of Transport Fuel to 2050 Source: See Annex 2 for full scenario names and citations. a) See biofuels in Chapter 6 for endnotes relating to food security, sustainability, and resources, issues that experts mentioned in connection with biofuels for transport. 01

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