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Global Futures Report 2013 - Figure 2

19 Some countries have targets for amounts of annual electricity generation from renewables rather than shares. For example, by 2020 or 2030, Algeria targets 41 terawatt hours (TWh), Australia tar- gets 45 TWh, and South Korea targets 40 TWh.22 (For power capacity targets in gigawatts (GW), for selected countries, see Chapter 5.) a Many states, provinces, and sub-national regions also have electricity-share targets. For example, Scotland targets 100% by 2020, Upper Austria 100% by 2030, South Australia 33% by 2020, and Abu Dhabi 7% by 2020. In the United States, 30 states have Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) policies that mandate future shares of electricity and thus represent a form of de facto target, typically in the 10–30% range, and 10 more states have other types of policy targets. In Canada, four provinces have RPS policies, and another five have other types of policy/planning. In India, at least 15 states have RPS policies and other states have policy targets.23 (See also Box 6 on page 42, and Chapter 4 for city and local targets.) Many experts during interviews thought that a 40–50% global electricity share by 2030 was feasible if national policies remain aggressive. Many European experts believed that Europe would reach even higher shares of electricity, up to 70–100% in the long term. Several experts were similarly optimistic about such levels on a global scale, and one asserted that, “we can achieve a global elec- tricity share of 80% from renewables in the next 20–30 years.”24, b Table 2 shows electricity shares for Europe, the United States, Japan, China, India, other Asia, Latin America, and Africa from recent scenarios.25 (See also Figure 2 for targets and projections for selected countries.) n Heating and Cooling Shares Very few countries outside of Europe have policy targets for shares of heating from renewables. For the EU, national renewable energy plans collectively imply about 20% of heating by 2020. Germany’s Renewable Energies Heating Law, effective in 2009, requires all new residential buildings to obtain at least 20% of household heating and hot water energy from renewables, with an overall goal of 14% of total heating energy to come from renewables by 2020, including district heating systems.26 Other targets for share of heating (and cooling) from renewables by 2020 by EU members include Belgium (12%), Denmark (40%), France (33%), Greece (20%), Lithuania (39%), Romania (22%), Spain (19%), and the United Kingdom (12%). Beyond 2020, EU-wide scenarios for 2030 project 20–25% on the low end (EC 2009), and 45–55% on the high end (EREC 2010 and Greenpeace 2012). For 2050, some projections reach 60–100% (EREC 2010 and SEI 2009).27 (See also Chapter 4 for city and local targets for heating and cooling shares, and more on national heating policies and mar- kets in Chapter 5.) Industry experts offered widely differing opinions about future heating/cooling shares, and some found it difficult to offer an opin- ion. Many believed that it would be difficult to go beyond 25–30% shares in many regions of the world without major transformations in the energy efficiency of new building designs, along with retrofits to existing buildings. (See buildings integration in Chapter 2.) Views on Europe were more optimistic than this level, partly because of advanced policies, building designs, and use of biomass, especially in northern Europe. The possibilities for higher shares also depend on climatic zone and renewable resource availability, said experts.28 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 EC(2009) IEAWEO(2012) 2020target 2030target 2050target DOE(2012) UCS(2009) Greenpeace (2012) METI(2010) CREIA(2012) LBNL(2011) Greenpeace (2012) ISEP(2011) Greenpeace(2011) EREC(2010) ShareofElectricity(Percent) EU Actual 2010–2011 Target 2020 Projection for 2030–2035 Germany United States Japan China Egypt Philippines Brazil Figure 2: National and EU Electricity Shares from Renewables, 2010–2030 (2010 Actual, 2020 Targets, and 2030–2035 Projections) Source: See Endnote 25 for this chapter. a) TWh units are used for annual amounts of electricity generation; GW units are used for physically existing power capacity. See Table 4 on page 53, and see the online supplement “Glossary and Basic Energy Concepts” for more on energy units. b) All quotations from experts interviewed for this report are anonymous; see Annex 1. Other quotations from published sources or energy companies are cited with the publication author and year or company name, and detailed citations are provided in endnotes. 01

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