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Global Futures Report 2013 - National and EU Shares

17 Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution scenario, which has become the most widely recognized and thorough projection made by renew- able energy advocates, shows 82%.a At the highest end, WWF (2011) shows a 95% share.8 The credibility of such high-renewables scenarios has increased over the years, following a long tradition of “100%” scenarios dating back to the 1970s by renewable energy advocates and visionaries. The difference is that now, given the scope of government policy targets and market growth in recent years, such high-renewables scenarios are grounded in growing present-day markets.9 (See Endnote 9 for further discussion of “credibility” in the context of scenarios.) In interviews, most industry experts believed that the world could reach at least 30–50% shares of renewables in the long term. (See also Box 3 for a recent global goal of 30–35%.) And some experts advocated for 100% or near-100% futures. European experts cited considerably higher shares just for Europe (see following section), with many saying that Europe could attain 50–70% shares.10 (Also see following sections for more expert opinions based on individual sectors.) National and EU Shares Many moderate and high-renewables scenarios, both for indi- vidual countries and for the EU, exist for energy share by 2050. For Europe, two high-renewables scenarios are the EREC (2010) RE-thinking 2050 scenario, which shows almost 100%, and the European Commission (2011) “Energy Roadmap 2050,” whose “High Renewables” scenario shows 75%. For India, Greenpeace (2012) shows 81%. For China, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (2011) shows 17–32% by 2050 (including nuclear).11 (For more on national and EU targets and market projections, see Chapter 5.) Conservative national and EU scenarios project 10–20% shares in the longer term. Examples include 11% by 2035 for the United States (U.S. Department of Energy, Annual Energy Outlook, 2012); 13% by 2030 for Japan (Ministry of Economics, Trade and Industry, “National Energy Plan,” 2010; pre-Fukushima); 20% by 2030 for China (Xiliang et al., 2010); 13% by 2030 for Asia and the Pacific, excluding hydro (APEC/ADB, Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific, 2009); and 22% by 2030 for Europe (EC, 2009, reference case).12 Beyond such scenarios, national governments are projecting their energy supply mix into the future and enacting actual policy targets (goals) for future shares of renewable energy to 2020, 2030, and even 2050. At least 118 countries had policy targets for renewable energy by 2011, a dramatic increase from 49 countries in 2005. The EU as a whole targets 20% by 2020, and all EU members have individual targets for 2020 that collectively achieve the 20% target. Germany, long the renewable energy leader in Europe, and one of the earliest policy pioneers in the 1990s, has a comprehensive set of targets that provide for a step-wise progression every decade, from 18% in 2020 to 60% in 2050. Denmark, also an early policy pioneer, is the only EU country to target 100% renewables in the long term (2050), starting with 35% in 2020.13 Box 3 | UN “Sustainable Energy for All”: Doubling the Global Renewables Share In 2012, the United Nations launched a global goal for renewable energy—a doubling of global energy share from renewables by 2030. This goal is an interlinked part of the UN’s “Sustainable Energy for All” initiative, which also aims to double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency and to ensure universal access to modern energy services. Reaching these goals would mean achieving a roughly 30–35% share of renewables, and a tripling of modern renewables if the share of traditional biomass remains constant. Source: See Endnote 10 for this chapter. a) The Greenpeace scenario is a joint publication of Greenpeace International, the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), and the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC). GWEC became a co-author in 2012. Throughout this report, this scenario is cited as simply Greenpeace for brevity. b) See online supplement “Glossary and Basic Energy Concepts” for all technical terminology. PV stands for photovoltaic and CSP stands for concentrating solar thermal power. Outside of Europe, a diverse group of at least 20 other countries target energy shares in the 2020–2030 time frame that range from 10% to 50%, including Algeria, China, Indonesia, Jamaica, Jordan, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritius, Samoa, Senegal, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, and Vietnam. To give a few specific exam- ples, Algeria targets 37% from solar power (both solar PV and CSPb ) and 3% from wind power by 2030; Indonesia targets individual renewable technologies that collectively add up to 18% by 2025; and Ukraine targets 19% by 2030 (compared to 1% in 2010). OECD countries Australia, Canada, Japan, and the United States do not have total energy share targets, but do have other types of national targets (see the following sections).14 China targets 15% from renewables and nuclear combined by 2020. (For comparison, renewables were about 9% and nuclear was about 1% in 2010, and thus this target represents a roughly 50% increase in renewable energy over 2010 levels.) Chinese experts offered a range of views about long-term shares beyond 2020. Some envi- sioned that this share could reach as high as 50%, while others believed that the 15% reached in 2020 would be the limit, and renewables would then grow at the same rates as other techno- logies. Most experts believed that a 35% share by 2040–2050 was reasonable. Others cited uncertainty about nuclear and shale gas, and stressed that if shale gas were to materialize in large quantities, this would displace some of the drive and need for renewables.15 (See Annex 3 for further discussion of competing fuels.) Sectoral Shares: Electricity, Heating/Cooling, and Transport The previous discussion was focused on shares of total energy. However, many targets and scenarios also exist that project renewables separately in individual sectors: electricity, heating/ cooling, and transport. These sectoral shares provide greater insight into the future because the challenges, opportunities, and technologies are very different in each sector. In particular, there was strong expert agreement in interviews that high shares of electricity from renewables will be the easiest to attain. And 01

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