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REN21 10 Years Report

41 01 industrial and economic development, financial risk mitigation, flexibility, and resilience. Many existing energy companies, especially those with a vested interest in the status quo, project conservative future shares of renewable energy and emphasise cost hurdles and variability challenges. These companies continue to believe that the future will be dominated by fossil fuels. Such “conservative” outlooks project that the share of renewable energy in global energy supply will remain below 20% in the future, not much higher than today. “Moderate” outlooks—as concluded by experts and sce- narios—project renewable energy shares of 30 – 45% by 2050, including electricity, heating/cooling, and transport. In such outlooks, renewable electricity is integrated into power grids as high shares i.e., 50 – 80%, using a variety of options such as demand-response, balancing with natural gas, new market structures for balancing services, and some energy storage. Transport employs modest but growing amounts of biofuels, along with electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, partly charged from renewable electricity, and some modal shifts of freight to higher proportions of electric transport. “High renewables” outlooks project 50 – 95% of energy shares by 2050. Such shares are cited by many experts, and are detailed in scenarios, typically produced by public advocacy organisations. However the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has traditionally produced more conservative projections, has published in recent years a series of scenarios that show high penetration of renewables by mid-century. High-renewables projections typically outline some combination of significant and continued renewable energy cost reductions, along with aggres- sive and long-term support policies for renewable energy, and major transformations in energy markets and infrastructure. “High renewables” projections also illustrate up to 100% shares of renewable electricity—thus not counting heating or transport. These high shares come from a portfolio of renewable technologies, coupled with a balancing and grid-strengthening of measures, energy storage, and evolving electricity market rules. In transport, large shares of biofuels and electric vehicles are projected—even for freight transport—such as biodiesel and electric trucks and electric rail. The use of electric vehicles for grid-balancing purposes is enhanced through smart-grid interactions and “vehicle-to-grid” (V2G) and “vehicle-to-home” (V2H) concepts. Buildings are designed, constructed, and heated/cooled in a different paradigm. The use of renewables integrated building materials becomes ubiquitous, “low energy” or “passive” buildings with high energy efficiency and low heat- ing requirements become the standard, and many forms of renewable heating and cooling are used, including solar thermal, geothermal, and biomass. One common attribute of many high-renewables scenarios is a constrained, carbon emission future. Such high-renewables carbon constrained scenarios typically model aggressive energy efficiency improvements, can model carbon capture and storage for fossil fuels, and typically model little or no nuclear power. Such scenarios may also include some type of carbon price incorporated into energy markets. Scenario by year Electricity Heat Transport by 2030 – 2040 Exxon Mobil Outlook for Energy: a View to 2040 2040 16% – – BP Energy Outlook 2030 (2012) 2030 25% – 7% IEA World Energy Outlook (2013) New Policies 2035 31%i 12%ii 6%iii IEA World Energy Outlook (2013) 450 2035 48%iv 16%v 15%vi Greenpeace (2012) Energy [R]evolution 2030 61% 51% 17% by 2050 IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (2014) 2DS 2050 65%vii – 29%viii GEA Global Energy Assessment (2012) 2050 62 % – 30% Greenpeace (2012) Energy [R]evolution 2050 94 % 91% 72% WWF (2011) Ecofys Energy Scenario 2050 100% 85% 100% Table 8: Sectorial Shares of Renewable Energy in Recent Global Scenarios i) As share of total generation. ii) As share of total final heat demand; excludes traditional biomass. iii) Biofuels as share of total transport. iv) As share of total generation. v) As share of total final heat demand; excludes traditional biomass. vi) Biofuels as share of total transport. vii) As a percentage of gross electricity generation. NB, under the 2DS High Renewables scenario, renewables as a percentage of gross electricity generation are 80%. viii) Biomass as a share of final energy demand in the transport sector. Note: " – " means that no data are available. Exxon Mobil Outlook for Energy: a View to 2040204016% – – BP Energy Outlook 2030 (2012) 203025% – 7% IEA World Energy Outlook (2013) New Policies 203531%i IEA World Energy Outlook (2013) 450203548%iv Greenpeace (2012) Energy [R]evolution 203061% 51% 17% IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (2014) 2DS 205065%vii GEA Global Energy Assessment (2012) 205062 % – 30% Greenpeace (2012) Energy [R]evolution 205094 % 91% 72% WWF (2011) Ecofys Energy Scenario 2050100% 85% 100%

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